November 18, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | I Will Stand | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Landofthepharaohs | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Frost Or Frippery | 0.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Original Intent | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Overzealous | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Quicksilver | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go for Sherrie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Traci’s Greeley | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unfading Beauty | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Connect | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stellar Stiletto | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jills Passion | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Brynlie | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sworn Silence | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | First Lady Maggie | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Inveterate | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Daddymademedoit | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Funnybet | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Bets | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Glamour Girl | 2.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flower House | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5 | Patriot’s War | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Hawk of War | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Reigning Spirit | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Combating | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Do Your Best | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beachwalker | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ahnaf | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Punch Hard | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Royale | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Alexander Hamilton | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Stonecastle | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Yellowstone Girl | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’sfiftyshadetime | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chandelle | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dash to the Top | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sunshine City | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Moonshine Dancing | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Focus First | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Binge Watch | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Freedom Bound | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Happygobucky | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Credit Enhancement | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lake Sense | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Celestial Spin | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Girl Lexi | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sugar Diva | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nancy Work | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spy a Star | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ravintsara | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Luna Tigress | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sam and Sy | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Generator | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hygh I. Q. | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Worlds | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Copley | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Conformist | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Algebraic | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drunken Love | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Press Snooze | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Critical Threat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2 | Kim K | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 3 | Figure It Out | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 4 | Singita Dreams | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Extra Effort | 8.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diamonds Are A | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bye Bye Bully’s | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Complete | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bacchanalia | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Wildlife | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Temple City Terror | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sea Dream (BRZ) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Naughty Joker | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Air Force Jet (GB) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Albert’s Barn | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Makabim | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Continuum | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Stay Happy | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Town Drunk | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Atmos | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Firehorn | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Twinkling Knight | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | War Veteran | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jimmy Joe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.