November 15, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Abundant | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Extreme Force | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Tune | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rye Humor | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Graves Mill Road | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shilah Baby | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Live It Up | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Summer Lovin | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Abramax | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frills | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mis Elain E Us | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twisted Emotions | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Money Inthe Starrs | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Clearly Mad | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Etu Babou | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Thrown for a Loupe | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Outlier | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Southern Will | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Unlonely | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Redoux | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sir Acealot | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Final Game | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 8 | Four Wheeler | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ready to Roll | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Totally Jimbo | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Santos Dumont | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sounion | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Letmeno | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Glory Road | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Regular Guy | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Rags | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Antigravity | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Santa Cruiser | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Adara | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big in the City | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Major Chance | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Seminole Beach | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Super Sol | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kroy | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Debating | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oro de Tejano | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vice Versa | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Solomonic | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mississippi | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frammento | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Stillwater Cove | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | A Bit of Both | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Surrender Now | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ambassador Luna | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | On Probation | 50.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mentality | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Winning Envelope | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Elle Z | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Change of Control | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dixieincandyland | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cambria | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Winter Sunset | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Windcracker | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Caddo River | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alejandro | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky Pharoah | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Partner’s Hope | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hometown Hero | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Determined to Rise | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | River Redemption | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pit Boss | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trident Hit | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Icon | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Working Title | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Candy Ride | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Symphonic | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Motagally | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Low Tide Warning | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sky Temple | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 7 | Call Papa | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tamanrassett | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Patriarch Artie | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | American Tryst | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Floriform | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Wick | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | King Uhtred | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Public Information | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Loyal Louie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Command Central | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | February Son | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Swingman | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18A | 8 | Load Up Moe | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pure Courage | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Double Tough Tiger | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.