Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 14, 2020

November 14, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Coltonator 2.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Trashtalkinyankee 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Yankee Seven 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Lngtermrelationshp 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Light of the World 4.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Mister K 2.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Vasariano 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Jacks Fire Balls 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Incorrigible 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Magic Michael 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Lastchanceatglory 8.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Samaronti 2.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Liberty Belle 12.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Time for Glory 15.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Our Ten Angels 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Ann in the Middle 3.00 3 6-1
5 5 West Side Girl 1.60 3.9 7-1
4 4 Call of Love 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Solemn Oath 3.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 3 All Good 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 2 Grandgran 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 1 Stock Deal 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 4 Briar Jumper 30.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 El Ahijado 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Eight Ain’t Enough 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Day Trip 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Wind Twist 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 King of Fortune 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 He’s the Souperwon 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Dealin’ Stelen 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Star Dog 15.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Campioni 2.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 County Court 2.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Red Blue and True 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Half Trick 10.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Thomasville 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Illusionista 5.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Prado Amore 15.00 4.9 9-1
12 11 Paddy Kaye’s Wild 4.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Mayapretty 4.50 6.5 12-1
1 1 Discreet Demons 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 7 Grimpante 8.00 7.6 14-1
10 9 Osprey Court 15.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Holdontoyourtiara 8.00 8.2 16-1
6 5 La Monse 50.00 9.5 18-1
7 6 St. Louise 6.00 9.8 19-1
4 4 Miss Apple Pie 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Ghoul (BRZ) 15.00 2.4 5-1
11 7 Hidden Ruler 15.00 2.5 5-1
14 9 Explorer 2.50 4.4 8-1
2 1 Unmoored 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Big Money Mike 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Mucho 12.00 5.7 11-1
7 5 Williston Way 15.00 6.2 12-1
12 8 Maniacal 50.00 7.5 14-1
9 6 Power End 8.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Born Great 2.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Satellite Storm 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Infinite 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Holiday Stone 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cousin Dario 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mo Zone 6.00 2.6 5-1
7 6 Eskenforit 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Cantrell Hill 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Marquee Thunder 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Big Beautiful Wall 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Lonely Private 6.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Money for Mischief 15.00 7.1 13-1
6 5 Carte Blanche 10.00 7.7 15-1
5 4 Mo’s Mojo 3.50 7.8 15-1
3 3 Make Noise 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Loaded 15.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Ocean Breeze 1.60 2.6 5-1
3 2 Gerri B 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Goulding 12.00 4 8-1
2 1 Palio Flag 2.50 5.1 10-1
5 4 Champagne Horizon 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Villanelle 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mrs. Revere S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Positive Danger 15.00 2 4-1
3 2 Stunning Sky 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 3 Princess Grace 3.00 3.4 6-1
6 5 Pass the Plate 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Witez 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 How Ironic 4.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Hendy Woods 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pledge 12.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 High Fashion 6.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Honorifique 3.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Rookery 3.50 5.1 10-1
9 9 Empress Catherine 6.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Minetta 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Myrtle Irene 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 D’oro Forever 12.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Tabor Hall 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Amber Waves 30.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Grace’s Secret 6.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Lady Commander 30.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Tone My Betty 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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