November 14, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Coltonator | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trashtalkinyankee | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yankee Seven | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lngtermrelationshp | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Light of the World | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mister K | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Vasariano | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jacks Fire Balls | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Incorrigible | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Michael | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lastchanceatglory | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Samaronti | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Liberty Belle | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Time for Glory | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Our Ten Angels | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ann in the Middle | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | West Side Girl | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Call of Love | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Solemn Oath | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 3 | All Good | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Grandgran | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stock Deal | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Briar Jumper | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | El Ahijado | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Day Trip | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Wind Twist | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | King of Fortune | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | He’s the Souperwon | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dealin’ Stelen | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Star Dog | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Campioni | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | County Court | 2.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Blue and True | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Half Trick | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Thomasville | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Illusionista | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Prado Amore | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Paddy Kaye’s Wild | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mayapretty | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Discreet Demons | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grimpante | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Osprey Court | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holdontoyourtiara | 8.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | La Monse | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | St. Louise | 6.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Apple Pie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Ghoul (BRZ) | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Hidden Ruler | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Explorer | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Unmoored | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Big Money Mike | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mucho | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Williston Way | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Maniacal | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Power End | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Born Great | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Satellite Storm | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Infinite | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Holiday Stone | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cousin Dario | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mo Zone | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eskenforit | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cantrell Hill | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marquee Thunder | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Big Beautiful Wall | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lonely Private | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Money for Mischief | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carte Blanche | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mo’s Mojo | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Make Noise | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Loaded | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ocean Breeze | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gerri B | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Goulding | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Palio Flag | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Champagne Horizon | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Villanelle | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Mrs. Revere S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Positive Danger | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stunning Sky | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Princess Grace | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pass the Plate | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Witez | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | How Ironic | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hendy Woods | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pledge | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Fashion | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Honorifique | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rookery | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Empress Catherine | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Minetta | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Myrtle Irene | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | D’oro Forever | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tabor Hall | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Amber Waves | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grace’s Secret | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Commander | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tone My Betty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.