Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 12, 2020
November 12, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Twirling Patti | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Velsheda | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Queens Gift | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Playfulmisssamurai | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Ensign | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She’s Forever | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Premier Wish | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Telluride Queen | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Itsallinthenotes | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | America’s Girl | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ship’s Creek | 1.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shop American | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Windy Nations | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Passageway | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bourbon Frontier | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | The Beat | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Highest Mandate | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Barrel Proof | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Let It B | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | On Deck | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Keep Your Distance | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jungle Juice (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Honey Parade | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alittlelesstalk | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shasta Star | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cedar Hall | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Bronze Beast | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | O Dogg | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lend It Tewmey | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | El Segundo | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sidetown | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unspoken Memories | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jedrek | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charity for All | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Barista | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Illiogami | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sovereign Power | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Targeted Return | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fasted | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Talk Radio | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady Clementine | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Family Time | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild Story | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temper Swings | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Stunning Princess | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Catalan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Picasso Collection | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Beautiful Trauma | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | French Empire | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Second Coming | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chance to Shine | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Resurrection Road | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sara Sea | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Zoom Up | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Abrogate | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hoodwink | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Mine for Passion | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Sweets | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dame Cinco | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mi Sandia | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Antecedence | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hrasky | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ekatimorningstrike | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frosted Angel | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cardioversion | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Winning Impression | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lake Nakuru | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Parkland | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mud Pie | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Attorney Tim | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Toma Todo | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Telephone Talker | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Perjury Trap | 4.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Churn N Burn | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | King Theo | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Botswana Taps | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Silenced | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Glory Road | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Working Title | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Claytnthelionheart | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tuff Bird | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beauty Day | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cold Hearted Wench | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Malibu Marlee | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Competitive Fire | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bet Your Bankroll | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tale of Mona | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Letters to Belle | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Templuna | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Willemina | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.
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