Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 12, 2020

November 12, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Twirling Patti 3.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Velsheda 10.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Queens Gift 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Playfulmisssamurai 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 War Ensign 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 She’s Forever 2.50 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Premier Wish 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Telluride Queen 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 3 Itsallinthenotes 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 America’s Girl 15.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Ship’s Creek 1.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Shop American 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Windy Nations 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Passageway 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Bourbon Frontier 3.50 2.8 5-1
4A 3 The Beat 4.50 5.3 10-1
2A 2 Highest Mandate 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Barrel Proof 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Let It B 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 On Deck 15.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Keep Your Distance 2.50 3.2 6-1
5 5 Jungle Juice (IRE) 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Honey Parade 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Alittlelesstalk 4.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Shasta Star 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Cedar Hall 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bronze Beast 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 O Dogg 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Lend It Tewmey 3.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 El Segundo 4.00 4 8-1
7 7 Sidetown 2.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Unspoken Memories 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Jedrek 10.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Charity for All 10.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Barista 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Illiogami 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 Sovereign Power 4.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Targeted Return 3.50 3.5 7-1
8 7 Fasted 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Talk Radio 8.00 6 11-1
10 9 Lady Clementine 10.00 8.1 15-1
2 1 Family Time 20.00 8.7 16-1
5 4 Wild Story 8.00 9 17-1
1 1 Temper Swings 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Stunning Princess 1.40 SCRATCH
12 12 Catalan 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Picasso Collection 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Semble Juste (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Beautiful Trauma 2.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 French Empire 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Second Coming 4.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Chance to Shine 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Resurrection Road 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Sara Sea 8.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Zoom Up 3.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Abrogate 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Hoodwink 12.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Mine for Passion 5.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Golden Sweets 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Dame Cinco 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Mi Sandia 30.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Antecedence 20.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Hrasky 6.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Ekatimorningstrike 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Frosted Angel 8.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Cardioversion 10.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Winning Impression 12.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Lake Nakuru 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Parkland 20.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Mud Pie 3.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Attorney Tim 8.00 5 10-1
1 1 Toma Todo 10.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Telephone Talker 4.50 7 13-1
7 7 Perjury Trap 4.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Churn N Burn 4.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 King Theo 15.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Alfons Walde (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH
12A 12 Botswana Taps 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Silenced 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Glory Road 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Working Title 4.00 SCRATCH
16A 16 Claytnthelionheart 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tuff Bird 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Beauty Day 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Cold Hearted Wench 12.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Malibu Marlee 2.50 3.4 6-1
10 10 Competitive Fire 10.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Bet Your Bankroll 12.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Tale of Mona 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Letters to Belle 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Templuna 20.00 7 13-1
3 3 Sweet Willemina 15.00 7.2 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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