Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 11, 2020

November 11, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Kentucky Playboy 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Just a Irish Lad 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 My Alimony 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Strikeitortapit 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 New Dice 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Collectthemoney 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Dirty Deeds 5.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Woopigsooie 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Loopallu 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Royal Commission 1.60 3 6-1
6 5 Summer Mischief 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Exciting 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Hank the Tank 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Coworker 2.50 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Elgar 4.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Buttered Noodles 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Magic Man’s Touch 12.00 2 4-1
1 1 Public Safety 8.00 2 4-1
6 6 Shippingport 2.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Hop Kat 2.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Cabot 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Drink 2.50 1.3 2-1
9 9 Approved 4.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Kinzea Stone 4.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Anytimeallthetime 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Fast Recovery 3.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Revenio 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Greenspan 15.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Hitthegroundrunnin 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Just Like Richie 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Morocco 4.00 SCRATCH
6 1 Space Mountain 3.50 1.7 3-1
12 12 Gunnison 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Perfect Tapatino (FR) 20.00 SCRATCH
10 4 Limonite 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Big Beautiful Wall 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Convict Pike 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Zambian 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Honovi 20.00 SCRATCH
7 2 Intrepid Heart 2.50 4.5 9-1
8 3 Easy Shot 15.00 5.7 11-1
15 5 Prompt 5.00 6 11-1
5 5 Rijeka (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Cammack 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Fielder 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cavu Command 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Lautrec 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Perfect Sense 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Tribulation 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 8 Good Juju 4.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Tiz Light the Way 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Englander 3.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Don’tshowweakness 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Scott Pond 20.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Two Thirty Five 2.50 1.5 3-1
7 6 Fort Peck 3.50 1.6 3-1
2 1 Locally Owned 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Tank Commander 12.00 2.4 4-1
4 3 Nepal Up 12.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 Haunt 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Chess Chief 3.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Sagaponack 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 More Than Unusual 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Sun Summers 4.00 SCRATCH
16 6 Movie Moxy 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Ria Munk 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Heaven Escape 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Choate Bridge 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Edgee Angel 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 O Seraphina 3.50 SCRATCH
3 1 Broadway Lady 6.00 7 13-1
12 5 Tipsy Gal 10.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Urban Fairytale 8.00 SCRATCH
8 2 Street of Dreams 10.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Osaka Girl 4.00 SCRATCH
10 3 Fate Factor 12.00 9.3 18-1
17 7 Storm At Sea 4.00 10.4 20-1
14 14 Hat Tip 15.00 SCRATCH
11 4 Maga Suite 30.00 11.8 22-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Noren 10.00 1.7 3-1
3 2 Fastly 1.40 3.3 6-1
8 7 Centrifuge 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Ready to Answer 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 8 Be Fierce 12.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 Shananies Paynter 15.00 4.4 8-1
12 11 Steely Danza 12.00 4.5 9-1
10 9 Carmel Bay 20.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Creasy 50.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Scale 6.00 7.3 14-1
5 4 Atoka 10.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Scofflaw 50.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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