November 11, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Playboy | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Just a Irish Lad | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Alimony | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strikeitortapit | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | New Dice | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Collectthemoney | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dirty Deeds | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Woopigsooie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Loopallu | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Commission | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Summer Mischief | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Exciting | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hank the Tank | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coworker | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Elgar | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Buttered Noodles | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Magic Man’s Touch | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Public Safety | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shippingport | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hop Kat | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cabot | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Drink | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Approved | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kinzea Stone | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Anytimeallthetime | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Recovery | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Revenio | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Greenspan | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Morocco | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 1 | Space Mountain | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gunnison | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Tapatino (FR) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 4 | Limonite | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Beautiful Wall | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Convict Pike | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Zambian | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Honovi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 2 | Intrepid Heart | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Easy Shot | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 5 | Prompt | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rijeka (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cammack | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fielder | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cavu Command | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lautrec | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Sense | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tribulation | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Good Juju | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz Light the Way | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Englander | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Don’tshowweakness | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scott Pond | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Two Thirty Five | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fort Peck | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Locally Owned | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tank Commander | 12.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nepal Up | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Haunt | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chess Chief | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sagaponack | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | More Than Unusual | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sun Summers | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 6 | Movie Moxy | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ria Munk | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heaven Escape | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Choate Bridge | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Edgee Angel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | O Seraphina | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Broadway Lady | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | Tipsy Gal | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Urban Fairytale | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 2 | Street of Dreams | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Osaka Girl | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 3 | Fate Factor | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 17 | 7 | Storm At Sea | 4.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Hat Tip | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 4 | Maga Suite | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Noren | 10.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fastly | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Centrifuge | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ready to Answer | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Be Fierce | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shananies Paynter | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Steely Danza | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Carmel Bay | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Creasy | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Scale | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Atoka | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scofflaw | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.