November 8, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Matt’s Honey | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dance the Day Away | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Wynter Rose | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Positive Vibes | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Deputy Dora | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yes I’m Evil | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sundereya | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | Peace Broker | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sun Path | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Liam’s Lass | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1A | 4 | Forever Mesa | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Supertaleofhoudini | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Ginkgo | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Naughty Rendezvous | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Apsara | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Escapeproof | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Exaggeratedincome | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Roar of Cali | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ambitiously Placed | 3.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky Pride | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Class Riot | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Presleys Rifle | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gigi’s Gift | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sacre Bleu | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Idol | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Excession | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Parade Field | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Don Bourbon | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mulberry Street | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic West | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Posh Princess | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Singsong Bird | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Settle a Score | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Better Biz | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Etelka | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sequaya | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whiskarita | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Commish | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tootsie | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lil’ Shopper | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fulsome | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kitten’s Firstlove | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rookie Year | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Happy Champ | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Halfbarberbingie | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Committed | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beniah | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | High Press | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Highway | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tapwood | 3.50 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Double Tough Tiger | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hard Knocking | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cold as Hell | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Prairie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Windcracker | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Stay Home | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Derby City | 15.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Paddy O’Dini | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | May We All | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Zinger | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vivid Verse | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mine My Time | 4.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Most Mischief | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Snaggletooth | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Albert’s Barn | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Firehorn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dealin’ Stelen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Carter Cat | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | College Party | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Can Imagine | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bigmancan | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hansens Mischief | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Intimidation | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Continental Clash | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wyoming Conquest | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Soaring Bird | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Phast Pharoah | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Subliminalcriminal | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Critic | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | And Seek | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Harper | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ask Bailey | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Heart Sings | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Timeless Rose | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Evil Lyn | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tynan | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mariafoot (FR) | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kourvoisier (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Teenage Kicks | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Windracer (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Beautiful Trauma | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Red Hot Babe | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Motown Girl | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whispering Pines | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Mane Girl | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Silverbella | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sconset | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bellucci | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | America’s Surprise | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zoology | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honorable Memory | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pictorial | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Sister’s Ghost | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | April in Paris | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.