Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 5, 2020

November 5, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pirate Rick 2.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Lemon and Diem 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Oceanic 6.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Augusta Melody 10.00 2 4-1
4 4 Roux Ga Roux 4.50 3 6-1
1 1 War Detonator 2.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bump 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Goodtime Artie 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 T J Munnings 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Saving Mama 5.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Hickerson 6.00 5.5 10-1
1A 10 Star Mission 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Beau Book 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 With It Walter 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 High Season 8.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Language Barrier 6.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Charlie’sarchangel 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Street to Indy 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Hardly a Secret 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 5 Believeinholidays 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Stock Deal 20.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Hard to Be Good 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Laddie Boy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Parking Ticket 5.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Kiffle 2.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Centerfold Angel 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Merada 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Kimberley Dream 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Strollin the Bayou 12.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Shackleford County 2.50 4.9 9-1
7 7 Sweet N Wicked 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Enjoyitwhilewecan 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 2 Tempers Rising 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Mercy Mercy 8.00 2.2 4-1
2 1 Market Rumor 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 3 Hashtag Winner 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 First Course 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Matt’s Honey 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rebuff 3.00 1.1 2-1
11 10 Alwayz Late 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 6 Point of Infinity 6.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Tara Hill (IRE) 15.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Sweet Workout 15.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Let’s Skedaddle 3.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Mrs. O’Connell 4.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 Sylvia Q 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Stephen’s Joy 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 McNally 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Esperer (FR) 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Temper Swings 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Richebourg 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lady Clementine 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Vegas Guy 3.50 1.3 3-1
5 5 Holy Redeemer 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Scarred 6.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Private Network 10.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Ricochet 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Union Gap 12.00 3.2 6-1
12 12 Warrior in Chief 10.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Tap Gold 6.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Saqeel 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Two Princes 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Midlaner 15.00 7.9 15-1
13 13 Samurai Saint 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Windcracker 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Big in the City 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Super Wise 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Crosby Street 20.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Its a Wrap 3.50 1.3 3-1
7 5 Cash Now 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Groovy Lemon Pie 10.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Rob the Rich 3.50 3.6 7-1
8 6 Fire Marshall Bill 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Haydens Havoc 8.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Eel Point 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Equal Justice 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Parlor 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Mr. Misunderstood 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 7 Snapper Sinclair 3.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Big Score 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Made You Look 15.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Jasikan (IRE) 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 Frostmourne 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Tell Your Daddy 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Real News 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Borracho 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Create a Story 4.00 1.6 3-1
10 10 Orb’s Soul 12.00 2 4-1
5 5 Duches of Grace 20.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Blonde by Nature 20.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Irish Willow 3.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Could You 2.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Bow Down Tewmey 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Veiled Vixen 6.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Actress On Board 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Letters to Belle 20.00 7.2 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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