Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 4, 2020

November 4, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Traci’s Greeley 2.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 She Wants More 15.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Twelve Monarchs 15.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Patti Patti Patti 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Molly’s Game 3.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 Lucky Be a Lady 5.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Grats Road 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Halama 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Erv’s Wench 3.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Flashy Biz 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Gold Button 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Flatoya 3.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Sneak Peek 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Bee Fast 6.00 1.3 2-1
8 7 Risky Reward 1.40 1.3 2-1
10 9 Megan’s Clara 8.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 Blossom Road 12.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Sisi 12.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Euphoric 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 5 Della Frost 15.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Aunt Joie 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Candy Anne 30.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 I’m a Hugger 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Further Lane 1.60 1.4 3-1
6 6 Shahera Song 12.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Cabo Dorado 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Tetrahydro 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Runaway Dream 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Dulcimer Dame 3.50 4.8 9-1
5 5 Mavalous Mavalous 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Crafty Lady 30.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Duplicitous 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Takechargmatriarch 5.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Subiaco 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Clever Tale 5.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Recoded 2.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Ginny B 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 French Rose 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ballot Initiative 6.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Keepthe Main Thing 3.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Dinn Righ 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Regal Passage 4.50 5.9 11-1
8 8 Innovate 20.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Sail On Ellen 5.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Smoothover 10.00 7.4 14-1
17 17 Runaway Mom 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Powder River 3.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Whispering Pines 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Zoology 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 My Mane Girl 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Triangle Park 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Admaa 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Rearrange 6.00 10.3 19-1
1 1 Margaret’s Joy 4.00 10.4 20-1
5 5 Happy Tune 30.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Irish Spirit 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Midnight Patriot 6.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Communicator 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Jurisdiction 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Good Clean Fun 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Rivers of Lite 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Tiz McNamara 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Bourbon Trail 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Areyareadyfreddy 30.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Laughing Levi 50.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Mo Mosa 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 4 Sonneman 1.40 1.4 3-1
7 6 Mailman Money 6.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Oak Hill 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 What a Country 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 2 Cash Logistics 30.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Ragtime Blues 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Apreciado 1.80 1.8 3-1
1 1 Go Poke the Bear 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Kurilov (CHI) 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 Imperial Mission 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 9 Storm Runner 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Blackline 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 3 Stormcoast 30.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Hemp Hemp Hurray 3.50 5.6 11-1
11 10 World Tax War (IRE) 30.00 8.5 16-1
7 6 Briar Jumper 30.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Believeinholidays 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Super Sol 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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