November 4, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Traci’s Greeley | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She Wants More | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twelve Monarchs | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Patti Patti Patti | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Molly’s Game | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lucky Be a Lady | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grats Road | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Halama | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Erv’s Wench | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flashy Biz | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gold Button | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flatoya | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sneak Peek | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Bee Fast | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Risky Reward | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Megan’s Clara | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blossom Road | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sisi | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Euphoric | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Della Frost | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aunt Joie | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Anne | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m a Hugger | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Further Lane | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shahera Song | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cabo Dorado | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tetrahydro | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Runaway Dream | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dulcimer Dame | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mavalous Mavalous | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Crafty Lady | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Duplicitous | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Takechargmatriarch | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Subiaco | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Clever Tale | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Recoded | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ginny B | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | French Rose | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ballot Initiative | 6.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Keepthe Main Thing | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dinn Righ | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Regal Passage | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Innovate | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sail On Ellen | 5.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smoothover | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Runaway Mom | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Powder River | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Whispering Pines | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Zoology | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | My Mane Girl | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Triangle Park | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Admaa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Rearrange | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Margaret’s Joy | 4.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Tune | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Irish Spirit | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Midnight Patriot | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Communicator | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jurisdiction | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Clean Fun | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rivers of Lite | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz McNamara | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Trail | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Areyareadyfreddy | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Laughing Levi | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Mo Mosa | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sonneman | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mailman Money | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oak Hill | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | What a Country | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cash Logistics | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ragtime Blues | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Apreciado | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Poke the Bear | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kurilov (CHI) | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Imperial Mission | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Storm Runner | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blackline | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stormcoast | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hemp Hemp Hurray | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | World Tax War (IRE) | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Briar Jumper | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Believeinholidays | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Super Sol | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.