October 30, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Barton Hall | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Decorated for Gold | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Delachaise | 1.20 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Double Oaked | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honey Bourbon | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celestial Orb | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hard Ten | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Emperador | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Twenty Twice | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Abaan | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speightstown Again | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pledgeofallegiance | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge d’Oro | 10.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Knight’s Cross | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Millwood | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Altito | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Candy Carlos | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | December Seven | 1.20 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ransack | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Oak Room | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hawk of War | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pintxos | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Ahnaf | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marsac | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Criminal Defense | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Punch Hard | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Arion Magic (FR) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Suggested | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Paintsville | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Defied | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mr Matuschek | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Trashtalkinyankee | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elusive d’Oro | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Big Bluff | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peruvian Boy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Feature | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Verb | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Roman Pharoah | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | My Boy Gus | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Naveen | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clearly Mad | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Poirier | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conformist | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Deceiver | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smoothie | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Devilinthebottle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | Auction Fever | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Bankruptonthebeach | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Aunt Mims | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spun Eazy | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foreign Exchange | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twila Mae | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sunset Promise | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Siamese | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Erv’s Wench | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Dean Martini | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Night Time | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Home Base | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nifty | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Alfred James | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Straight Shot | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Popit | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tough Love | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dabo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Silver Prospector | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Casino Star | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Celtic Striker | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Proverb | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Royal Mesa | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Multiplier | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lord Dragon | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Final Cut | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | High Regard | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Saranya | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Princess Theorem | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Queen of the Green | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Temper Time | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Joy in Grace | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Sweet Mary Lou | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Dramatizer | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Regal Song | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Amortization (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Calle de Llora | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Candace O | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Palm Court | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lady Clementine | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Illiogami | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.