October 29, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fra Mauro | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Substantial | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Handy | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Musical Man | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beaver Hat | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Red Bottom Rebel | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ilha Do Mel | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Cat Lady | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tizso Awesome | 1.80 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Grimpante | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shesalittle Edgy | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shahera Song | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tactician | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blankenbaker | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maga Country | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Detective | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Count Your Pennies | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carrier Pigeon | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hex | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Iron Bull | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Above Board | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Overzealous | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hooray for Harvey | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tres Equis | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Landofthepharaohs | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Campioni | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Steel | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quicksilver | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Copley | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sir Acealot | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Nip N Tuck | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Waypoint | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Payster | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Big Sky Montana | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Town Agenda | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Western Pharoah | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mr. Banyan | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Happy Dash | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grey Sloan | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Just a Irish Lad | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Guided Missile | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alex Joon | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Attachment Rate | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Luna’s in Charge | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Distorted Moon | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | One Nation | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glory Road | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Train to Artemus | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Santa Rita | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Impeach Me | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Joy of Painting | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Imperial Moon | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Double Dare You | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Playfulmisssamurai | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Sugar Diva | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cuzzywuzzy | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Thundering Creed | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bee Fast | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Blossom Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Risky Reward | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Tiz a Bit Lucky | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | A. P. Princess | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cardamon | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond Crazy | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Zusha | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Club Car | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bye Bye Bertie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Regal Retort | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Sharecropper | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Nepal Up | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Original Intent | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Cibolian | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Claytnthelionheart | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Fortuity | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Kentucky Ghost | 4.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Botswana Taps | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Prefect | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Hellorhighwater | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Bluegrass Parkway | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Midnight Jostar | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Take Charge d’Oro | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Queens Empire (IRE) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | World Tax War (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 2 | El Ahijado | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | New Eagle | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Town Drunk | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Pradar | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Uncle Gregory | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baozun | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rayo de Luz | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rock On Kitten | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Mutadda | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Praise Be to God | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twinkling Knight | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | New Year’s Luck | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Feeling It | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Martial Eagle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Derby City | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.