October 28, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Strolling | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Icatiro | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bobby Baby | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thirsty Betrayal | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cave Run | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Light of the World | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Sag Harbor | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Conquistador Show | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Major Wager | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | American Humor | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Beaver Creek | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Autopilot | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hawk Tail | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hoof Prince | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All Eyes West | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blueridge Mountain | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hi Ho Cheerio | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seminole Warrior | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Suspect | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | He’s the Souperwon | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Swap | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Water Patrol | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mark My Way | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paddy O’Dini | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Stay Home | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shenandoah Flash | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Magic Solution | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carry On | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Longdrinkofwater | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What Goes On Tour | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lookin At Sweetie | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Post Code Envy | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Dominance | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Amber Waves | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Uncork the Bottle | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shashashakemeup | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snow Man | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coltonator | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High Proof | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stay Happy | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | American Patrol | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ghostlighter | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Repo Rocks | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Loumo | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laker Mamba | 3.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Power Red | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | No Obligation | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Ricochet | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Santa Cruiser | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sky Temple | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Hold Tight | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Leblon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Freddy Flintshire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Incitatus | 5.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Brutus | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Summer | 3.50 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Peterkin | 15.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lake Nimrod | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Long Term Thinking | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Niles Channel | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chasing Anna | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Schochoh | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Motown Music | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Decision Maker | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Night Candy | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bubba Caballo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | War Like Goddess | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Quiet Dignity | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Coilean Bawn | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Stand Tall | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Three Flamingos | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shimmering (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Trish the Dish | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dreamin’ of Munny | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sursum Corda | 4.50 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | First Course | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Nessum Dorma | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Brunella | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blazed Up | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drink | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Allen | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lea Ridge | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Wednesday | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hey Ray | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Subdued | 3.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Prowl Alone | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.