Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 28, 2020

October 28, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Strolling 3.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Icatiro 1.40 2.7 5-1
4 4 Bobby Baby 8.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Thirsty Betrayal 10.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Cave Run 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Light of the World 8.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Sag Harbor 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Hooperdrivesthboat 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Conquistador Show 3.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Major Wager 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 American Humor 3.00 4.5 8-1
5 4 Beaver Creek 6.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Autopilot 5.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Hawk Tail 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hoof Prince 2.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 All Eyes West 2.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Blueridge Mountain 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Hi Ho Cheerio 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Seminole Warrior 3.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Suspect 10.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 He’s the Souperwon 2.50 4.4 8-1
2 2 Midnight Swap 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 4 Water Patrol 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Red Blue and True 20.00 5 9-1
7 5 Mark My Way 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Paddy O’Dini 1.20 SCRATCH
5 5 Stay Home 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shenandoah Flash 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Magic Solution 1.40 3 6-1
1 1 Carry On 3.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Longdrinkofwater 5.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 What Goes On Tour 12.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Lookin At Sweetie 15.00 4.5 9-1
9 8 Post Code Envy 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Lady Dominance 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Amber Waves 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Uncork the Bottle 2.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Shashashakemeup 1.60 2.5 5-1
6 6 Snow Man 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Coltonator 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 High Proof 10.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Stay Happy 6.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 American Patrol 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Ghostlighter 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Repo Rocks 8.00 6 11-1
3 3 Loumo 3.50 7 13-1
4 4 Laker Mamba 3.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Big Power Red 15.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 No Obligation 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Ricochet 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Santa Cruiser 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Sky Temple 4.00 SCRATCH
17 17 Hold Tight 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Leblon 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Freddy Flintshire 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Incitatus 5.00 11.8 22-1
6 6 Mr. Brutus 20.00 12 23-1
5 5 Majestic Summer 3.50 13.3 25-1
10 10 Mr. Peterkin 15.00 13.4 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lake Nimrod 2.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Long Term Thinking 1.20 3.4 6-1
9 8 Niles Channel 12.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Chasing Anna 8.00 4 8-1
7 6 Schochoh 15.00 6.2 12-1
6 5 Motown Music 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 7 Decision Maker 30.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Night Candy 15.00 6.6 13-1
5 5 Bubba Caballo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 War Like Goddess 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 1 Quiet Dignity 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 2 Coilean Bawn 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 10 Stand Tall 3.00 5.7 11-1
9 8 Three Flamingos 6.00 6 11-1
7 6 Shimmering (IRE) 12.00 7.3 14-1
8 7 Trish the Dish 20.00 8 15-1
5 4 Dreamin’ of Munny 30.00 8.6 16-1
4 3 Sursum Corda 4.50 8.7 16-1
1A 12 First Course 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Nessum Dorma 30.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Brunella 20.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Blazed Up 12.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Drink 1.80 3.2 6-1
7 6 Allen 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lea Ridge 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Wicked Wednesday 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Hey Ray 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 8 Subdued 3.00 7.1 14-1
3 3 I Prowl Alone 8.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Hitthegroundrunnin 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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