Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 25, 2020

October 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mahomes Money 5.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Cool Rags 20.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Big Union 3.50 3.3 6-1
9 8 Bird Ruler 2.50 3.6 7-1
7 6 Man On the Moon 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 7 Pollard’s Day 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Load Up Moe 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 4 Appraisal 4.50 7.4 14-1
3 3 Tenth of Gold 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Shastaloo 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Army Wife 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Rookery 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Best Cause 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Makeajoyfulnoise 20.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Silk and Sugar 4.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 She’s So Cali 8.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Platinum Sky 15.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Lady Commander 12.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Wild Combo 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Family Time 8.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Malloy 6.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Altered Shot 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Princess Lea 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Zarella 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Yarmony 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Grace’s Secret 6.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Winze 15.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Dark Timber 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Hillbilly Logic 5.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Spicy Marg 1.60 4.9 9-1
9 9 Invincibility 3.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Skip Tewmey 15.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 El Casadora 30.00 7.7 14-1
7 7 Sidetown 6.00 7.9 15-1
6 6 Spend Benjamins 20.00 8.5 16-1
8 8 Nitro Time 8.00 9.1 17-1
11 11 Clarestown 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Loyal Louie 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Coach Hudson 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 King of the Nite 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Ultimate 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Mr. Estes 15.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Superman Shaq 2.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Stayin’ Out Late 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Notable Exception 10.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Ultimate Badger 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Meister 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Notary 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Last Samurai 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Super Quick 4.50 2.6 5-1
8 7 Eileen Alexandra 12.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 Clairiere 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Len Lo Lady 4.50 3.7 7-1
10 9 Ship It 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Jail House Code 20.00 7 13-1
6 5 Will’s Secret 6.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Good Penny 20.00 7.8 15-1
7 6 Mejthaam 5.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Easy Silence 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Danger 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Go Big Green 2.50 5.7 11-1
8 8 La Burnett 5.00 6 11-1
4 4 Yaba Daba Diva 3.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Bella Conchita 12.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Malibu Super Sport 15.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Miss Adeline 3.50 7.7 15-1
6 6 Faded Memories 20.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Calle de Llora 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Stephen’s Joy 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Surrealist 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Rebuff 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Jewel Azul 15.00 11.1 21-1
9 9 Vietnam 15.00 11.3 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Street Sense Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Oncoming Train 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 6 Super Stock 1.60 3.1 6-1
1 1 Crime Spree 15.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 King Fury 4.50 3.4 6-1
6 5 Franz Josef 10.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Arabian Prince 4.00 5 9-1
5 5 Eucharist 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Floriform 8.00 3.5 7-1
11 10 Grand Design 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Southern Passage 15.00 4 8-1
5A 5 Race Craft 3.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Hope and Dignity 20.00 4.9 9-1
10 9 Camp Hope 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Leblon 30.00 6.1 11-1
12 11 Mystical Man 4.50 6.8 13-1
9 8 Business Model 4.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Rye Sense of Humor 4.50 7.9 15-1
3 3 Scarlet Fusion 8.00 8.2 15-1
13 12 Shartle 30.00 8.8 17-1
6 6 All Bodes Well 8.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 Santa Cruiser 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Rags To Riches Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Midnight Ballerina 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Orsetto 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Coach 3.00 3.4 7-1
5 5 Lady Traveler 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Salty as Can Be 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Malibu Bird 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Dash to the Top 15.00 5 9-1
7 7 Torsie’s Charm 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Oliviaofthedesert 4.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 King’s Ovation 20.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Runway Magic 15.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Frosted Over 12.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Outasite 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Big Lake 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Royal Tryst 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Hpnotiq Rhythm 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 Trump Card 10.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Commandeer 15.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Group Hug 30.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Foliage 4.50 6.8 13-1
12 12 Copa 8.00 9.3 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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