October 23, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Morning Social | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cantrell Hill | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Makabim | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Urbanite | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stock Deal | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Believeinholidays | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moonshine Dancing | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Article | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sunny Isle Beach | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | More Is More | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Grant | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Some Would Say | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Soviet | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Eel Point | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Charliecando | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | On Your Mark | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | First Contact | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mascabroni | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carmel Bay | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Sense | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cecile’s Chapter | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Puye Timing | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fast N Fine Worker | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Betcha by Golly | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Blissful Change | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Long Monday | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thursday | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Crowella | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Misspell | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lilac Lace | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Magnetism | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Momentous Miss | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Good With Numbers | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sister Annie | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shades of Truth | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Queens Gift | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | How Lucky | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bell Day | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Our Ten Angels | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pettigo Girl | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Birdie Be Gone | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Color of Dawn | 1.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | La Pulcinela | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Latte Dolce | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Zoom Up | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blarney Girl | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trouble Making | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Classic Tale Saver | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pappy’s Best Girl | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Be Like Water | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Sequin | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moravia (GB) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Aunt Nadine | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jades Gelly | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | First Wave | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Sugar and Sass | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Lea’s Princess | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Abuse of Power | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon ‘n Ditch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cindy’s Prayer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Kona Kai | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Heaven Escape | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | And Isles | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sense You Left | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Boating Party | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Backshot | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | And Seek | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dust Devil | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Market Analysis | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prioritizer | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fire Marshall Bill | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Tip | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Lady Lawyer | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Speedy Solution | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Winter Sunset | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Gal Betty | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Quick Witted | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Complicit | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lessons From Avery | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Julia’s Ready | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Agi’s Cait | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Clara Peeters (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Summer in Saratoga | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Oh So Terrible | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | High Regard | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Traipsing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Final Cut | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Macho Momma | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Devilish Wit | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Maxine’s Tap Room | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Foolery | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goldie’s Delight | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hindsight | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Celestial Spin | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | General Ginny | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Super Sport | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.