Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 22, 2020

October 22, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mizzen Air 2.50 2.4 4-1
9 8 Lady Blue 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 War Eagle’s Love 3.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 Lucky Be a Lady 6.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 She Wants More 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Sheesa Pontiac 6.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Rewarded 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Fun Sucker 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Katie the Cutie 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 6 Patriot’s War 3.00 2 4-1
6 3 Obsessed 2.00 2.2 4-1
8 5 Mau Mau 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 2 Alexander Hamilton 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 4 Beachwalker 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 1 Poterya 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Summer Palace 1.80 SCRATCH
3 3 Capital Call 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hawk of War 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tight Ten 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Satchel de Ritches 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Atmos 6.00 2.9 6-1
9 8 Olson 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Loopallu 6.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Bourbon Native 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Grand Atlantic 30.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Sparkys Surprise 30.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Baozun 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Spun Run 2.50 1.6 3-1
3 2 War Ensign 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Just Life 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Presleys Rifle 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 4 Izeonpoint 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Platinum Hallway 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Goody Two Sioux 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Hard to Access 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 Shackleford County 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 4 Tee Em Eye 3.00 2.6 5-1
7 5 Princess Trina 4.50 2.6 5-1
8 6 Keep Your Distance 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Tia Flor 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 3 Sunset Paula Jo 10.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Smokin Hot Momma 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Parking Ticket 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Honey Parade 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Current 3.00 2.7 5-1
11 10 By Your Side 5.00 3.2 6-1
4A 4 Artie’s Rumor 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Bundibunan 6.00 4.5 8-1
13 12 Kaziranga 5.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Sabador (FR) 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Fighting Seabee 10.00 6.6 13-1
9 9 High Promise 12.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Flap Jack 15.00 8.7 16-1
12 11 Dune of Pilat (FR) 15.00 9 17-1
2 2 Silver N Lai 15.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Stage Ready 15.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Power Player 20.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 On a Spree 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Eskenforit 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sugar Love 1.60 2.7 5-1
2 2 Kiss More 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Graysonsmacho Gal 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Lemon Chill 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Flower House 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 My Bets 12.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Iadanza 4.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Julius 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Santos Dumont 10.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Stage Left 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Silver State 3.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Blackberry Wine 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Atone 15.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Uber Kirk 15.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Trident Hit 12.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Branco Maria 15.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Chase Tracker 20.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Wentru 3.50 2 4-1
4 2 Fighting Force 3.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Ethical Judgement 3.50 2.8 5-1
9 6 Burrow 8.00 3.5 7-1
12 8 American Tryst 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 7 Tamanrassett 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 3 Hard Rye Guy 10.00 5.5 10-1
6 4 Louisville Legend 30.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Kentucky Pharoah 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Incitatus 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Coastal Waters 50.00 SCRATCH
11 11 American Patrol 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Majestic Summer 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ghostlighter 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Flat Reward 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Swingman 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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