October 18, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Don’tshowweakness | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Biz | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Name Is Phred | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Florida Flash | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eastern Symphony | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dance an Irish Jig | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sonic Burn | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Legendary Hero | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Irish Willow | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gesture | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tootsie | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Forevernoa | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lavalier | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sweet Willemina | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lil’ Shopper | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pharoah’s Gold | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ketchikan | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I’ll Make It Coach | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Paynt | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Poets Princess | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Exaggeratedincome | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Solemn Oath | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Alimony | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Yellowstone Girl | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sacre Bleu | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spy a Star | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Forever | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bertrada | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kentucky Pride | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hot Dame | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Sky Cat | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | What Goes On Tour | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bakers Bay | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Juggernaut | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lake Nakuru | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Caramelito | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Picasso | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | In Love (BRZ) | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Falkirk | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Benelux | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Majestic Ro | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Perjury Trap | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Myamanoi | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | El Ahijado | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Alex Joon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Marshall Law (IRE) | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lemon Kick | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buy Me Candy | 20.00 | 13 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Inspector Frost | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tiwanaku | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beatbox | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | War Machine | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mazzini | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Power Red | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wick | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cees Get Degrees | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Vasariano | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Motagally | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sharecropper | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Indian Counselor | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | First Rate | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Paynter Party | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Magic Michael | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lookin High | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surf and Turf | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Rood And Riddle Dowager S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Siberian Iris (IRE) | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Always Shopping | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blame Debbie | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Over Thinking | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Naomi Broadway (BRZ) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | With Dignity | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Warrior in Chief | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sound the Charge | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big in the City | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thrown for a Loupe | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mocito Royale | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blushinstreetdevil | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seminole Beach | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kew | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Southern Passage | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.