Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 18, 2020

October 18, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Don’tshowweakness 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 5 Big Biz 3.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 My Name Is Phred 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Florida Flash 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Eastern Symphony 10.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Dance an Irish Jig 5.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Sonic Burn 20.00 7 13-1
3 3 Legendary Hero 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Irish Willow 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Gesture 2.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Tootsie 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Forevernoa 3.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Lavalier 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Sweet Willemina 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Lil’ Shopper 12.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pharoah’s Gold 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Ketchikan 4.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 I’ll Make It Coach 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Blue Paynt 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Poets Princess 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Exaggeratedincome 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Solemn Oath 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 My Alimony 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Yellowstone Girl 4.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Sacre Bleu 6.00 2 4-1
1 1 Spy a Star 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 She’s Forever 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Bertrada 4.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Kentucky Pride 4.50 3.4 7-1
3 3 Hot Dame 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Miss Sky Cat 20.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 What Goes On Tour 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bakers Bay 4.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Juggernaut 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Lake Nakuru 4.50 4.7 9-1
11 11 Caramelito 5.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Picasso 8.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 In Love (BRZ) 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Falkirk 5.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Benelux 10.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Majestic Ro 15.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Perjury Trap 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Myamanoi 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 El Ahijado 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Alex Joon 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Marshall Law (IRE) 12.00 10 19-1
9 9 Lemon Kick 15.00 10.6 20-1
2 2 Buy Me Candy 20.00 13 24-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Inspector Frost 2.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Tiwanaku 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Beatbox 2.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 War Machine 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Mazzini 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Big Power Red 15.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Wick 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Cees Get Degrees 20.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Vasariano 4.00 1.5 3-1
7 6 Motagally 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 2 Sharecropper 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 3 Indian Counselor 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 First Rate 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Paynter Party 12.00 7 13-1
8 7 Magic Michael 12.00 7.3 14-1
2 1 Lookin High 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Surf and Turf 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Rood And Riddle Dowager S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Siberian Iris (IRE) 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Always Shopping 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Blame Debbie 2.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Over Thinking 4.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Naomi Broadway (BRZ) 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 With Dignity 10.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Warrior in Chief 4.00 2.5 5-1
8 7 Sound the Charge 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Big in the City 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Thrown for a Loupe 10.00 4 7-1
9 8 Mocito Royale 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Blushinstreetdevil 4.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Seminole Beach 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Kew 15.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Southern Passage 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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