October 17, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bitumen | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Control Stake | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pat Daddy | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Batterbatterswing | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Event Driven | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rose of Paris | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speightful Charge | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Funnybet | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thomasville | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Areemaa | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Aby B | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | All Fact | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stellar Stiletto | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | My Dark Secret | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kiffle | 1.40 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Champagne Bling | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Miss Pinkerton | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dichotomy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ultimate Irony | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mechanicville | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Frontier | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Catipari | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Back Ring Luck | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saint Vrain | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Star Mission | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Surmont | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | T J Munnings | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Great Island | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | More Than Unusual | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Devious Charm | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Good Times | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Siamese | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I Hear You | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunset Promise | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Woodfin | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Popper | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Audrey’s Time | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Hat Tip | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Maga Suite | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Curly Ruth | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lemon Chill | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Widow of Nain | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Turnstone | 50.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cool Bobby | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lonely Private | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jessup | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Box of Chocolates | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yankee Seven | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Senor Jobim | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mister K | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rob the Rich | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Willful Woman | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Thinking | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Miss Dial | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wicked Bisou | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Three Tipsy Chix | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Caught Looking | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dottie | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bel Fiore | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miner’s Queen | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rainbow Belle | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mia At Midnight | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hippie Cowgirl | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Corelli | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Midnight Tea Time | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bizzee Channel | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Apreciado | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Temple | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hierarchy | 10.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Counter Offer | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ritzy A. P. | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dontblamerocket | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Imperial Mission | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Spirit Animal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Cullum Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Sugoi | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Troubling Moon | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Net Gain | 30.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lexus Raven Run S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Venetian Harbor | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Grand Cru Classe | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Four Graces | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Finite | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Secondary Market | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tonalist’s Shape | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Reagan’s Edge | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Secret Keeper | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Never Forget | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fair Maiden | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Quarterback Dak | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Why Why Paul Why | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drink | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Czechmight | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | El Supremo | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Money for Mischief | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz McNamara | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wind Twist | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fast Recovery | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Revenio | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.