Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 16, 2020

October 16, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Credit Enhancement 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 5 Golden Account 3.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Mindy’s Way 4.00 3.8 7-1
8 6 Sweet Spin 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 Liberty Belle 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Presleys Rifle 10.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Vale of Evesham 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Grapevine 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hetty G. 1.20 1.2 2-1
5 5 Sworn Silence 2.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 She’s No Drama 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Altered Dream 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Headfirst 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Money Inthe Starrs 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Giro Kate 12.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Double Down Britt 15.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Patty H 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 6 Empress Catherine 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Littlestitious 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Hybrid Eclipse 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Euphoric 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Smarty’s Angel 12.00 6.1 12-1
8 7 Trail Town Queen 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 No Down Days 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Risk Manager 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Tapwood 4.00 5 9-1
6 6 Hard Knocking 4.50 5.2 10-1
9 9 Command Central 3.50 5.5 10-1
8 8 Optimus Kat 5.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Low Tide Warning 10.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Master of War 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Pure Courage 15.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Bourbon Highway 15.00 8.2 16-1
11 11 Lavish McTavish 20.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Mocito Royale 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Wentru 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 American Tryst 5.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Kew 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tour the World 20.00 10.2 19-1
7 7 He’spuregold 30.00 13.7 26-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Jacks Fire Balls 3.50 2 4-1
1 1 Tiz Light the Way 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Tribulation 4.50 2.4 5-1
4 3 Scott Pond 5.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Make’n Tracks 3.50 2.5 5-1
8 7 Poppy’s Prize 12.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 Tiz the Journey 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Rushinguy 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Adhhar 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Cardiac Kitten 3.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Complexifier 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Vice Versa 4.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Elgar 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Duplicator 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Stay Happy 5.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Donnels Creek 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Cabot 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Explorer 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 High Crime 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Shackleford’s Joy 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Infinite 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Race Driver 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Power End 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Artemus Citylimits 3.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Grandal 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Competitive Saint 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 Never Have I Ever (IRE) 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Kitten’s Man 50.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Admiral Lynch 2.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Cool Arrow 2.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Manny Wah 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Seven Nation Army 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Bon Raison 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Honest Mischief 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pin Oak Valley View S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Stunning Sky 3.50 3 6-1
12 10 Antoinette 3.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Duopoly 4.50 3.5 7-1
4 3 Walk In Marrakesh (IRE) 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Witez 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 7 Sugar Fix 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Pranked 20.00 6.3 12-1
10 8 Outburst (GB) 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 2 Princess Grace 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 5 How Ironic 30.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 In Good Spirits 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lucky Betty 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Shesdiamonite 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 8 Little Bella 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Ms. Malevolence 5.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Veiled Vixen 5.00 5 9-1
7 6 Actress On Board 10.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Queen of Verona 8.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Duches of Grace 12.00 7.1 13-1
5 5 Competitive Fire 15.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Destiny’s Darling 1.80 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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