October 16, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Credit Enhancement | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Golden Account | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mindy’s Way | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sweet Spin | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Liberty Belle | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Presleys Rifle | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vale of Evesham | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Grapevine | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hetty G. | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sworn Silence | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She’s No Drama | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Altered Dream | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Headfirst | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Money Inthe Starrs | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Giro Kate | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Double Down Britt | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Patty H | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Empress Catherine | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Littlestitious | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hybrid Eclipse | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Euphoric | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smarty’s Angel | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Trail Town Queen | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | No Down Days | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Risk Manager | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tapwood | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Knocking | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Command Central | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Optimus Kat | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Low Tide Warning | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Master of War | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pure Courage | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Highway | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lavish McTavish | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mocito Royale | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Wentru | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | American Tryst | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kew | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tour the World | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | He’spuregold | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Jacks Fire Balls | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Light the Way | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tribulation | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Scott Pond | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Make’n Tracks | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Poppy’s Prize | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiz the Journey | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rushinguy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Adhhar | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cardiac Kitten | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Complexifier | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vice Versa | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Elgar | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Duplicator | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stay Happy | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Donnels Creek | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cabot | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Explorer | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | High Crime | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shackleford’s Joy | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Infinite | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Race Driver | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Power End | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Artemus Citylimits | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Grandal | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Competitive Saint | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Never Have I Ever (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Man | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Admiral Lynch | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cool Arrow | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Manny Wah | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Seven Nation Army | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bon Raison | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honest Mischief | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pin Oak Valley View S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Stunning Sky | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Antoinette | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Duopoly | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Walk In Marrakesh (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Witez | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sugar Fix | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pranked | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Outburst (GB) | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Princess Grace | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | How Ironic | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Good Spirits | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lucky Betty | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shesdiamonite | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Little Bella | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ms. Malevolence | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Veiled Vixen | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Actress On Board | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen of Verona | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Duches of Grace | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Competitive Fire | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Destiny’s Darling | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.