Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 15, 2020

October 15, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Create a Story 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Dulcimer Dame 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Cabo Dorado 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Tetrahydro 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 House Drunk 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Dark Phoenix 12.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Social Afleet 1.20 2.2 4-1
4 4 Majors Vindication 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Forloveofcountry 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Bahama Channel 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Uncle Gregory 6.00 4.2 8-1
5A 5 Afleet Moment 8.00 5.9 11-1
3A 3 Americain Joey 8.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Charlie Five O 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Go West 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Fire Sword 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Thirtyminutemass 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Albizu 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Fieldstone 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Culver 12.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Let’s Skedaddle 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Flown 2.50 3.6 7-1
11 11 Alwayz Late 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Becca’s Rocket 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Magic Solution 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Ann in the Middle 12.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 La Bella Rosa 12.00 7 13-1
8 8 Mrs. O’Connell 10.00 9.2 17-1
2 2 Rapid Water 15.00 9.8 19-1
10 10 Limonata 12.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Saranya 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Dramatizer 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 La Burnett 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Eileen Alexandra 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Postnup 15.00 10.8 20-1
7 7 Barista 20.00 12.2 23-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fastly 2.50 2 4-1
1 1 Mystic Night 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Thrill Ride 3.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Totally Jimbo 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Ready to Answer 8.00 4 7-1
4 4 Abundant 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Extreme Force 12.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Confess 10.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Lady Worthington 5.00 1.8 3-1
5 4 So Gracious 6.00 2.3 4-1
11 10 Intuicao (BRZ) 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 Crystal Lake 8.00 3.2 6-1
12 11 Originator 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Dance Rhythms 4.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Yes It’s Ginger 10.00 3.5 7-1
10 9 Violenza 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Sold It 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Mom’s Red Lipstick 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Elle Z 20.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Delicious Pursuit 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bonita Annie 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Letmeno 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Don Bourbon 4.50 2.9 5-1
10 7 Friar’s Road 8.00 3 6-1
9 6 Spa City 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Glory Road 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Job Security 20.00 6.9 13-1
8 5 Parade Field 15.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 Mister Candy Ride 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Hunt the Front 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Allege 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Sycamore S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Aquaphobia 2.50 3 6-1
10 10 Ziyad (GB) 2.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Red Knight 3.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Big Agenda 10.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 North Dakota 10.00 7 13-1
1 1 Postulation 15.00 7.7 14-1
9 9 Eons 20.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Morning Stride 20.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Split the Wickets 15.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 He’s No Lemon 15.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Major Attraction 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 2 Street Class 2.50 2 4-1
6 4 Irish Spirit 4.50 2.2 4-1
8 6 Cash Now 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Buttered Noodles 8.00 3.4 6-1
9 7 Grand Hideaway 15.00 6 11-1
4 3 Classified Info 15.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Apple Empire 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Eight Ain’t Enough 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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