October 15, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Create a Story | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dulcimer Dame | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cabo Dorado | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tetrahydro | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | House Drunk | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dark Phoenix | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Social Afleet | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Majors Vindication | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forloveofcountry | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bahama Channel | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Gregory | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Afleet Moment | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Americain Joey | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Charlie Five O | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go West | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fire Sword | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thirtyminutemass | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Albizu | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fieldstone | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Culver | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Let’s Skedaddle | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flown | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Alwayz Late | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Becca’s Rocket | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Magic Solution | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ann in the Middle | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | La Bella Rosa | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mrs. O’Connell | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rapid Water | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Limonata | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Saranya | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dramatizer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | La Burnett | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Eileen Alexandra | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Postnup | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Barista | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fastly | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Night | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thrill Ride | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Totally Jimbo | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ready to Answer | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Abundant | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Extreme Force | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Confess | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Lady Worthington | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | So Gracious | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Intuicao (BRZ) | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crystal Lake | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Originator | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dance Rhythms | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Yes It’s Ginger | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Violenza | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sold It | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mom’s Red Lipstick | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Elle Z | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delicious Pursuit | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bonita Annie | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Letmeno | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don Bourbon | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Friar’s Road | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Spa City | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Glory Road | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Job Security | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Parade Field | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Candy Ride | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hunt the Front | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Allege | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Sycamore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Aquaphobia | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Ziyad (GB) | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Red Knight | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Agenda | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | North Dakota | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Postulation | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Eons | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Morning Stride | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Split the Wickets | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | He’s No Lemon | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Major Attraction | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Street Class | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Irish Spirit | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cash Now | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Buttered Noodles | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Grand Hideaway | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Classified Info | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apple Empire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.