Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 11, 2020

October 11, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Fortune’s Fool 1.80 2.5 5-1
2 2 Mission Wrapitup 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Cobble Hill 1.40 2.6 5-1
3 3 Allured 6.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Titan’s Will 8.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Chrome Dixie 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Scotty 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Flintshire’s Rock 3.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Mindfreak 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Martinez 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Brew Pub 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tanners Neck Lane 15.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Sonic Speed 20.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ms Boombastic 2.00 3 6-1
2 2 Baseline Drive 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Wicked Happy 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Jazzy Lady 4.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Karley O 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Mischief Reigns 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 She Throws Heat 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Cherokee Song 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Motivated Seller 2.50 1.6 3-1
2 2 Prairie Fire 1.20 2.7 5-1
5 5 Fangirl 3.00 3 6-1
4 4 Brass Ring 4.50 3.4 7-1
1 1 Glass Ceiling 8.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Employees Only 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 8 Nebo 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Stay Home Mama 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Stormi Cat Lady 4.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Khali Magic 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Adirondack Queen 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Captivating Cara 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Vive La Liberty 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Bustin Bay 12.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Stanford (IRE) 8.00 2 4-1
3 3 Glad Rock (GER) 8.00 2 4-1
5 5 Price Talk 1.80 2.4 5-1
1 1 La Hara (IRE) 1.20 3.6 7-1
6 6 Bray 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Yes and Yes 20.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Lomu 30.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Futurity S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 After Five 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 3 Bright Devil (IRE) 8.00 3 6-1
10 6 Trade Deal 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Second of July 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 4 County Final 6.00 5.1 10-1
11 7 Gypsy King 12.00 5.3 10-1
9 5 Momos 3.50 5.4 10-1
1 1 Sky’s Not Falling 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Newbomb 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kentucky Knight 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Nutsie 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Caddo River 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Miles D 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Greatest Honour 3.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 Speaker’s Corner 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Bourbonic 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Original 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Chasing Fame 10.00 3 6-1
8 8 Rye Runner 30.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Matron S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Magisterium (IRE) 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Amalfi Princess 12.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Niente 6.00 2.9 5-1
7 6 Royal Approval 1.80 3.2 6-1
2 2 Fabricate 5.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Union Gables 8.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Rossa Veloce 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Bravo Regina 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Turn of Events 2.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Scotty Brown 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Gentleman Joe 5.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Mr. Vincent 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Wild Banker 12.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 K. K. Ichikawa 15.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Kid Chocolate 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Traffic Pattern 3.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Royal Suspect 20.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 River Knight 30.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 More Like It 15.00 7.8 15-1
12 12 Ridolfo 50.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Elusive Ruler 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Implied Volatility 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 No Lime 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Judicial Restraint 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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