Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 10, 2020

October 10, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Kimora 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Katie’s Karat 6.00 2.7 5-1
10 9 Happygobucky 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Overdressed 4.00 4.2 8-1
9 8 Twirling Wildcat 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Trumpet Lilly 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Blonde On Tap 12.00 5 9-1
7 7 Ruby Round Here 4.50 5.6 11-1
2 2 Race Smart 20.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Silver Maple 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Laddie Boy 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Ransack 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Coworker 1.80 2 4-1
4 4 Blue Steel 5.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Woopigsooie 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 News Box 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Flash Attack 20.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6A 6 Winning Moment 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Always Misbehaving 3.00 2.4 4-1
7A 7 Well Done West 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Lautrec 3.50 3.4 6-1
9 9 War Detonator 2.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Full Authority 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Motown Music 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Major Wager 20.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Legendary Hero 30.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 On Your Mark 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Super Sol 4.00 2 4-1
7 6 Fevola 3.50 2.4 5-1
8A 7 Automate 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Riverboat Gambler 6.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 New Eagle 6.00 3 6-1
6 5 Hop Kat 5.00 3.6 7-1
10 9 Blacktop Legend 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Victoryatvicksburg 20.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Praise Be to God 50.00 9.2 17-1
4A 4 Cantrell Hill 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Nashville 1.00 1.9 4-1
2A 1 Cowboy Diplomacy 3.00 2 4-1
5 4 Hoof Prince 10.00 4.3 8-1
7A 6 The Big S 3.00 5.1 10-1
3 2 Sounion 10.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 Spin Rate 8.00 5.7 11-1
6 5 Maximiliano 8.00 5.8 11-1
4 3 Wayne O 12.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Branco Maria 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Madison Parc 5.00 3.4 6-1
10 7 Red Light Racer 3.00 3.9 7-1
11 8 Empress Eleanor 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 3 Broadway Lady 8.00 5.5 10-1
13 10 Star Command 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Shell Shock 10.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Better With Age 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 6 Conoloway 12.00 8.1 15-1
7 5 Dinn Righ 12.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Sea Garden 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Zoology 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Rearrange 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Take Charge Ro 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Demora 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Tiz Penney 15.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Tanzerin (GER) 20.00 14.5 27-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 One Fast Orb 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Delta Traveler 6.00 5.9 11-1
8 7 Tabor Hall 6.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Easy to Bless 10.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Binge Watch 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 10 Making Progress 12.00 8.1 15-1
10 9 Makeajoyfulnoise 15.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Peace Broker 12.00 9.8 19-1
6 6 Spitz 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Equal Pay 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Willful Woman 3.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Celestial Spin 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Miss Dial 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Rainbow Belle 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Roc’s Princess 12.00 10.6 20-1
7 6 Cocktails On Tap 12.00 11.5 22-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hagyard Fayette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Captivating Moon 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Coastal Defense 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Mr Freeze 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Crafty Daddy 5.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Mo Mosa 12.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Title Ready 10.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Mirinaque (ARG) 15.00 6.3 12-1
10 9 Aurelius Maximus 10.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Rated R Superstar 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Tax 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Micheline 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Sweet Melania 3.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Magic Attitude (GB) 2.50 3 6-1
1 1 Harvey’s Lil Goil 3.00 3.1 6-1
8 6 California Kook 12.00 4.2 8-1
9 7 Red Lark (IRE) 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 4 Hendy Woods 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Antoinette 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lucky Betty 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Copley 2.50 2.5 5-1
1A 1 Hillbilly 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Outlier 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Assumption 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Love My Jimmy 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Escape Route 8.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Etu Babou 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Critical Threat 12.00 6.1 11-1
9 8 Kick Some Tale 20.00 6.9 13-1
7A 7 Derby Model 5.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Beau Book 20.00 12.5 24-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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