October 10, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kimora | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Katie’s Karat | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Happygobucky | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Overdressed | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Twirling Wildcat | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trumpet Lilly | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blonde On Tap | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ruby Round Here | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Race Smart | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Maple | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Laddie Boy | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ransack | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coworker | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Steel | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Woopigsooie | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | News Box | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flash Attack | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Winning Moment | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Always Misbehaving | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Well Done West | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lautrec | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | War Detonator | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Full Authority | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Motown Music | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Major Wager | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Legendary Hero | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | On Your Mark | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Super Sol | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fevola | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Automate | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Riverboat Gambler | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Eagle | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hop Kat | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blacktop Legend | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Victoryatvicksburg | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Praise Be to God | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Cantrell Hill | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Nashville | 1.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hoof Prince | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | The Big S | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sounion | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spin Rate | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maximiliano | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wayne O | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Branco Maria | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Madison Parc | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Red Light Racer | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Empress Eleanor | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Broadway Lady | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Star Command | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shell Shock | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Better With Age | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Conoloway | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dinn Righ | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Garden | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Zoology | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Rearrange | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Take Charge Ro | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Demora | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tiz Penney | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Tanzerin (GER) | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | One Fast Orb | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delta Traveler | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tabor Hall | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Easy to Bless | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Binge Watch | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Making Progress | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Makeajoyfulnoise | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Peace Broker | 12.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Spitz | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Equal Pay | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Willful Woman | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Celestial Spin | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Miss Dial | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Rainbow Belle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Roc’s Princess | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cocktails On Tap | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Hagyard Fayette S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Captivating Moon | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coastal Defense | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Freeze | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crafty Daddy | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mo Mosa | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Title Ready | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mirinaque (ARG) | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Aurelius Maximus | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rated R Superstar | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tax | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Dixiana
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Micheline | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Melania | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Magic Attitude (GB) | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | California Kook | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Red Lark (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hendy Woods | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Antoinette | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Betty | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Copley | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Hillbilly | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outlier | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Assumption | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love My Jimmy | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Escape Route | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Etu Babou | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Critical Threat | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kick Some Tale | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Derby Model | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Beau Book | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.