Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 10, 2020

October 10, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Courageous Girl 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Lem Me Have It 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Firenze Freedom 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Ellarella 5.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Miss Jimmy 4.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Blitchton Lady 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 First Dawn 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Cheatham Hill 10.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Desbordes 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Violent Point 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Robin Sparkles 1.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Grudge 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Summer At the Spa 5.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Jen’s Battle 10.00 6.1 12-1
8 7 Shesasuperfreak 20.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 City Temper 12.00 6.5 12-1
4 3 Towering Gaze 15.00 6.6 12-1
5 4 Screamin’ By 30.00 8.4 16-1
12 11 Wailin Josie 30.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Kinky Sox 30.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Gotta Go Mo 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Doll 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Counterparty Risk (IRE) 3.50 1.2 2-1
11 10 The Girl Herself 8.00 1.5 3-1
9 8 Nubian 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Pinch of Grace (GB) 10.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Alemia 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Zaccapa (FR) 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Translate 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 M Is for Magic 10.00 3.9 7-1
12 11 Slip Sliding Away 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 5 High Opinion 30.00 7 13-1
8 7 Vienna Code 50.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Chick Be Quick 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Champagne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Reinvestment Risk 1.60 2.6 5-1
4 4 Jackie’s Warrior 0.60 2.7 5-1
6 6 Midnight Bourbon 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Civil War 30.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Ambivalent 15.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Run Casper Run 30.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Frizette S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cantata 1.80 1.3 2-1
1 1 Vequist 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Dayoutoftheoffice 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Joy’s Rocket 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Get On the Bus 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Cilla 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Fifth Risk 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Newbomb 1.60 1.1 2-1
8 8 Risk Taking 3.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Overtook 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Weyburn 6.00 2 4-1
5 5 Nova Rags 8.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Enough Nonsense 8.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Kid Cash 12.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Jailbreaker 30.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Big Everest (GB) 4.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Connagh’s Quay 4.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Hardison 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Collision Course 12.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Cracker Box Palace 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Hard Love 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Stand With Mo 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Blu Grotto 15.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Houdini’s Awesome 15.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Mira Mission 20.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 River Redemption 30.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Spirit Maker 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Simovitch 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sifting Sands (GB) 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Rock Sugar 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Flower Bowl S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 My Sister Nat (FR) 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Civil Union 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Nay Lady Nay (IRE) 3.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Cambier Parc 2.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Lovely Lucky 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 La Signare (FR) 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Beau Belle 12.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Gold Cup S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tacitus 1.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Prioritize 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Mystic Guide 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Happy Saver 2.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Name Changer 20.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Sands Point S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tamahere (FR) 2.50 1.1 2-1
3 3 Selflessly 2.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Miss J McKay 3.50 2.9 6-1
7 7 Pure Wow 12.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Speaktomeofsummer 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Giacosa 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Drop a Hint 30.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Positive Power 50.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Herald Angel 3.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Amity Island 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 The Promised Road 6.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Mon Cherie 10.00 3 6-1
10A 10 Stella Mars 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Big Star 12.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Violentiam 4.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Dance Hall Queen 15.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Cinderella’s Cause 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Rock N Warrior 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Adriatic Rose 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Kreesa La Wrote 30.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Athena Dancer 15.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 Nebo 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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