Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 9, 2020

October 9, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Just Fly 1.40 2.4 5-1
1 1 Stolen Beauty 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Abramax 5.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Frills 2.50 3.3 6-1
4 3 Lil Miss Hot Mess 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Charge It Jenn 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Skamania 2.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Liz’s Cable Girl 3.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Nomizar 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Keep Your Distance 3.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Diamondcoat 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Shasta Star 5.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Its a Wrap 2.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Peruvian Boy 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Trashtalkinyankee 3.50 3 6-1
5 5 Hersh 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Substantial 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 The Feature 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Park Ridge Benny 2.00 3.6 7-1
12 11 Victory Element 3.00 3.7 7-1
13 12 Attain Success 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Ghostly Who 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Nice Work 5.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Maniacal 4.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Royal Privacy 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Mark My Way 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Giddymeister 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Silver Luke Silver 30.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Hitthegroundrunnin 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Twinkling Knight 5.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Red Blue and True 50.00 10.2 19-1
7 7 College Party 30.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Flatoya 1.20 2 4-1
6 6 Charmed One 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Tesorina 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Grimpante 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 Ashley’s New Shoes 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Holdontoyourtiara 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Twirling Dervish 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Telluride Queen 12.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Winters Back 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Telephone Talker 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 2 Dreams of Tomorrow 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Trade Deadline 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 6 Gear Jockey 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Ghostlore 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 7 Luxor 30.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Capt. Maestri 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Carmichael 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Behind the Couch 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Larimar 3.00 3 6-1
6 6 Not a Problem 3.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Letters to Belle 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Blonde by Nature 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Barbadolla 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Shelley’s Gem 10.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Gray Magician 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Copper Town 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Looking At Bikinis 3.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Hog Creek Hustle 6.00 4.5 9-1
12 12 Cove Blue 15.00 5 9-1
9 9 Strike That 6.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Lasting Legacy 4.50 5.4 10-1
7 7 Rubus 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Mucho 15.00 6 11-1
5 5 Borracho 20.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 High North 30.00 9.2 17-1
11 11 Visitant 20.00 9.8 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Got Stormy 1.20 2.9 6-1
9 7 Stillwater Cove 8.00 2.9 6-1
5 3 Jakarta 6.00 4 7-1
7 5 Winning Envelope 10.00 4 8-1
2 1 Into Mystic 6.00 5 9-1
12 10 Ambassador Luna 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 2 Surrender Now 15.00 6 11-1
11 9 Chalon 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 4 Violent Times 30.00 6.2 12-1
8 6 Change of Control 15.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Bohemian Bourbon 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tomlin 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Lady Rocket 2.50 1.3 2-1
9 8 Ocean Breeze 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Palomita 3.00 2.6 5-1
4 3 She Can’t Sing 5.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 We the Clouds 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 2 Zero to Sixty 6.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Majestic Blend 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 4 Madame Overserved 20.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Goulding 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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