Sports from the Basement

Woodbine Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 4, 2020

October 4, 2020 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Frame This 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Tizlegal 2.00 3 6-1
1 1 Freedom Machine 4.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Penetanguishene 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 All Eyes On Me 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 6 Dearfuturehusband 20.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Northern Allure 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 7 Ambitious Princess 20.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Sky Dragon 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Speedy Hans 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Miracle Silver 12.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Cash Dividend 3.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Courting a Kiss 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Lead Director 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Red Hierarchy 2.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Ready Soul 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Tap the Mojo 15.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Bay of Rum 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tourist’s Dream 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 California Keen 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Supplication 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Tio Magico 4.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Stephen 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Bode’s Tipsy 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Ready At Dawn 10.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Lomaki’s Gem 12.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Liars Club 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 La Isadora 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Ballrooms of Mars 2.00 2.8 5-1
10 9 Beyond Mybudget 12.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Dictate 12.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Karakontie Flyer 6.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Swilling 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Simple Souvenir 20.00 3.4 6-1
11 10 Sweet Uproar 20.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 River of Pearls 20.00 4 8-1
2 2 Call Her Joey 50.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Raven’s Song 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Final Strike 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Animal Krackers 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Carl G 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Schimmel 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Sterling Ice 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Mr. Todd 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Torah’s Blessing 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 G Prince of Silver 15.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 The Kodiac Kid (IRE) 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Tall Water 12.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Prince Martheus 15.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 I Have Hope 20.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Mason’s Gamble 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 6 Silver Smoke 6.00 3 6-1
8 7 Derzkii 5.00 4 8-1
10 9 Coltons Dream 3.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 I’m Dashing 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 2 Executive Giant 12.00 5.6 11-1
12 11 Alpha Beta Gama 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 4 Commander Tom 10.00 5.9 11-1
9 8 Verrazano Bridge 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 3 Jr Bourbon 20.00 6.8 13-1
11 10 Victory At Last 15.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Dr. Jewel 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Pleasecallmeback 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 3 Mnemba Island 2.50 3.1 6-1
9 6 Prideofdistinction 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Peace of Ekati 6.00 5.2 10-1
8 5 Olliemyboy 8.00 5.5 10-1
10 7 F F Rocket 12.00 6 11-1
7 4 Rogue Affair 10.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Solar 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Muchokova 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 English Classic 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fortuity 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Cerrado 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Voltamour 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Niigon’s Spin 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Vice Regent S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Not So Quiet 2.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 City Boy 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Sable Island 4.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Wedgewood 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Forester’s Turn 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Souper Success 15.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Nevaeh’s Dream 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Alicia’s Kid 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Victor’s Dynasty 30.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Celebratory 30.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Dani’s Victory 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Majestic Slew 5.00 3.3 6-1
14 12 Drink in My Hand 4.50 4.7 9-1
9 8 Executive Sight 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Call Me Wally 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 9 Occasional View 6.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Court Battle 12.00 7.1 13-1
11 10 Skynyrd 15.00 7.7 15-1
12 11 Kitten’s Solution 15.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Fritzie’s Boy 20.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 San Nicola Thunder 20.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Dot’s Vision 20.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Letthebighossroll 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Station Rock 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Circle of Friends 4.00 2 4-1
8 8 Souper Stonehenge 2.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Samurai Queen 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Stormfuhr 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Malibu Secret 3.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Ikerrin Road (IRE) 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Salieri 20.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Reconfigure 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Alacritous 30.00 7.5 14-1
11 10 Kaili’s Big Boy 30.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Perfect Speighty 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Deep Freeze 3.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Miriam’s Sky 8.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Forester’s Destiny 4.00 5.1 10-1
12 12 Silent Jet 5.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Sheer Flattery 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Hit the Ticket 12.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Street Legal 6.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Epilogue 15.00 8.2 16-1
10 10 Kissoffire (IRE) 15.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Coastal Highway 20.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Colton’s Corner 2.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Red Bo 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Black Sea (FR) 3.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Two Timing 20.00 10.1 19-1
6 6 R U Watchingbud 20.00 10.9 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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