Sports from the Basement

Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 4, 2020

October 4, 2020 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Jamming Eddy 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 2 Vantastic 6.00 3 6-1
5 4 Ginobili 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 Goalie 12.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Duplicity 6.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Thanks Mr. Eidson 8.00 7 13-1
2 1 Call You Tomorrow 12.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 El Chavo Del Ocho 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Torosay 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Foxborough 1.60 1.9 4-1
6 6 Holy Palace 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Freerunning 1.20 3.6 7-1
1 1 Swtswngngbillynav 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Deputy Gary 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Broken Finger 15.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Clubhouse Saint 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Big Moon 1.60 2.1 4-1
5 5 Take Her Temp 4.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Lemon Ice 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Smooth Rithms 4.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Warren’s Memorable 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Best Lady 12.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Zuma Beach S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ebeko (IRE) 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Caisson 3.50 2 4-1
6 6 Big Fish 2.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Tarantino 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Cotopaxi (IRE) 4.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Dennis Celery 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Ingest 10.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nolo Contesto 1.40 1.7 3-1
2 2 Ekklesia 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Mongolian Legend 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Strongconstitution 2.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Dreams of Valor 4.00 4 8-1
4 4 Dark Prince 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mount Pelliar 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Petruchio 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Heliochrome 3.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Harlan Estate 3.00 4 8-1
9 9 Today Matters 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Allaboutthemoney 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 K P Aim High 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Flactem Legacy 30.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Zoffa 20.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Noren 8.00 2 4-1
4 4 Canadian Pride 3.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Keystone Field 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Defense Wins 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Holden the Lute 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 August Indy 30.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Mongolian Kingdom 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Mickelson 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Surfer Girl S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Consternation (IRE) 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Madone 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Maxim Strider 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Tetragonal (IRE) 12.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Nimbostratus (FR) 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Pizzazz 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Closing Remarks 8.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Canoodling 8.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Reign of Fire 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Discretionary Day 4.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Ascot Storm 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Moving Fast 8.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Chief Jackson 8.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Found My Ball 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Crossword 4.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Alpine Thunder 8.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Careless Kitten 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 8 Finding Silver 12.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Pedro Perez 30.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Me Likey 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 General Mathis 8.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Bud Knight 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Alvaaro 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 City Rage 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Jack Sprout 10.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Palace Prince 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Show Business 12.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Antithetical 5.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Tromador 20.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Hoop Dream 30.00 9.6 18-1
12 12 Go Time 0.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Severin 30.00 10.4 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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