October 4, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | House Limit | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Admire | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honoring Major | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Knight’s Cross | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kurilov (CHI) | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Walkoff | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Comedian | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sea of Hope | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Handy | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Truculent | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Subliminalcriminal | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Communicator | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Why Why Paul Why | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jurisdiction | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Knicks Go | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Proverb | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Troubling Moon | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Mesa | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Easy Shot | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Casino Star | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Beeboo | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rising Empire | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eucharist | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Candy Curl | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mahomes Money | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vegas Guy | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orb of the Boro | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Trump Card | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cool Quest | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Grass Is Blue | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Feeling Mischief | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inject | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Goldstart | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Corey | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Twice Smitten | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flash Town | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yogurt | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Roderick | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Good With People | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cowan | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bodenheimer | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Agog | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Petit Verdot | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wink | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Golden Pal | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Munqad | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Windcracker | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Repo Rocks | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Business Model | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Palazzi | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Antigravity | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Incense | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Smiley Sobotka | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Invisible War | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Directional | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ram | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Joe Man Joe | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bourbon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Mutasaabeq | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Abarta | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Nathan Detroit | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Into the Sunrise | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Spyglass | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Indy Tourist | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Barrister Tom | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blame the Booze | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Private Island | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Arrest Me Red | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Really Slow | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hidden Enemy (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ollie’s Candy | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Valiance | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shedaresthedevil | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Kate | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Super Freak | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saracosa | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Information Mosaic | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Point of Infinity | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Candace O | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Runaway Rockette | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Illiogami | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Joy in Grace | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Temper Time | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Esperer (FR) | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Late for Taps | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Jewel Azul | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mummy Dearest | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sweet Mary Lou | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Coco Vin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Faded Memories | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Picasso Collection | 12.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tara Hill (IRE) | 12.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.