Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, October 4, 2020

October 4, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 House Limit 2.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Admire 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Honoring Major 3.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Knight’s Cross 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Kurilov (CHI) 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Walkoff 6.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Comedian 4.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Sea of Hope 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Handy 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Truculent 5.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Subliminalcriminal 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Communicator 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Why Why Paul Why 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Jurisdiction 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Knicks Go 1.40 1.4 3-1
3 3 Proverb 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Troubling Moon 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Royal Mesa 2.50 4.1 8-1
6 6 Easy Shot 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Casino Star 15.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Beeboo 4.00 1.7 3-1
9 8 Rising Empire 5.00 2 4-1
5 4 Eucharist 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Candy Curl 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Mahomes Money 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Vegas Guy 12.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Orb of the Boro 10.00 6.5 12-1
8 7 Trump Card 12.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Cool Quest 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 The Grass Is Blue 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Feeling Mischief 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Inject 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Lady Goldstart 3.00 3 6-1
7 7 Corey 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Twice Smitten 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Flash Town 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Yogurt 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Roderick 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 4 Good With People 4.00 4 7-1
1 1 Cowan 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Bodenheimer 12.00 6.1 12-1
7 5 Agog 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 6 Petit Verdot 20.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Wink 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Golden Pal 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Munqad 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Windcracker 4.50 3.9 7-1
8 8 Repo Rocks 5.00 4 8-1
4 4 Business Model 10.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Palazzi 5.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Antigravity 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Gold Incense 12.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Smiley Sobotka 8.00 6 11-1
12 12 Invisible War 12.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Directional 15.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Ram 10.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Joe Man Joe 20.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bourbon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Mutasaabeq 3.00 3.1 6-1
6 5 Abarta 12.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Nathan Detroit 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Into the Sunrise 3.50 4.1 8-1
12 11 Spyglass 12.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Indy Tourist 8.00 4.5 9-1
11 10 Barrister Tom 6.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Blame the Booze 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Private Island 12.00 5.8 11-1
8 7 Arrest Me Red 20.00 6.1 12-1
3 2 Really Slow 50.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 Hidden Enemy (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ollie’s Candy 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Valiance 4.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Shedaresthedevil 1.40 2.4 5-1
6 6 Lady Kate 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Our Super Freak 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Saracosa 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Information Mosaic 3.00 4 8-1
2 2 Point of Infinity 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Candace O 6.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Runaway Rockette 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Illiogami 8.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Joy in Grace 6.00 6.5 12-1
11 11 Temper Time 5.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Esperer (FR) 10.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Late for Taps 12.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Jewel Azul 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mummy Dearest 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sweet Mary Lou 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Coco Vin 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Faded Memories 20.00 10.3 19-1
13 12 Picasso Collection 12.00 10.3 20-1
1 1 Tara Hill (IRE) 12.00 11.9 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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