October 3, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Samaronti | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fra Mauro | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beaver Hat | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Healing | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic West | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | And Seek | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Guana Cay | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Front Street | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Ship It | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Fashion | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honorifique | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Will’s Secret | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Family Time | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Sky Cat | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bella Union | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tate | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pico d’Oro | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamer’s Disease | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Meister | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ultimate Badger | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drop Anchor | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Mistake | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Bellamore | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Malibu Bird | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surrealist | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bahama Mischief | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | West Side Girl | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mejthaam | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Len Lo Lady | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Amiche | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Splendid News | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Public Information | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King’s Mischief | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9A | 7 | Happymac | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Grand Design | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Unitedandresolute | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cheffy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dark Timber | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | King’s Ovation | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Oncoming Train | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vegas Guy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hard Asset | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mahomes Money | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Cool Quest | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Rising Empire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Beeboo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Woodford S. Presented By Tvg
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Leinster | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Real News | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fast Boat | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Extravagant Kid | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chaos Theory | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chaps | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Just Might | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Win Lion Win | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Citrus Burst | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Palace Avenger | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sneaking Out | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dos Vinos | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Inthemidstofbiz | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady’s Island | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | On Probation | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Divine Queen | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Beau Recall (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Newspaperofrecord (IRE) | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Uni (GB) | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dalika (GER) | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Crystal Lake | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddy Is a Legend | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Essential Quality | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Founder | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Calibrate | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Stock | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | King Fury | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Upstriker | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dixie’s Two Stents | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Keepmeinmind | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Notary | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Shadwell Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Flavius | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Analyze It | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Raging Bull (FR) | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Parlor | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Without Parole (GB) | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Casa Creed | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ivar (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bowies Hero | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Born Great | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Halladay | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Spectacular Gem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sir Alfred James | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Tough Love | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Straight Shot | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Edgemont Road | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shashashakemeup | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Savvy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tank Commander | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nifty | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sagaponack | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hide the Demon | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Madison’s Luna | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.