Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 3, 2020

October 3, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Samaronti 3.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Fra Mauro 3.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Beaver Hat 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Healing 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Majestic West 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 And Seek 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Guana Cay 2.50 1.5 3-1
4A 4 Front Street 3.00 2.1 4-1
6A 6 Ship It 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 High Fashion 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Honorifique 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Will’s Secret 5.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Family Time 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Miss Sky Cat 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Bella Union 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tate 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Pico d’Oro 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Dreamer’s Disease 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Meister 4.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Ultimate Badger 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Drop Anchor 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Perfect Mistake 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Bellamore 1.60 1.6 3-1
7 6 Malibu Bird 5.00 2.2 4-1
4 3 Surrealist 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Bahama Mischief 6.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 West Side Girl 12.00 4.5 8-1
9 8 Mejthaam 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 5 Len Lo Lady 20.00 5 9-1
3 2 Amiche 30.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Tiz Splendid News 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Public Information 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 King’s Mischief 5.00 1.7 3-1
9A 7 Happymac 4.50 2.1 4-1
7 6 Grand Design 5.00 2.8 5-1
11 9 Unitedandresolute 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Cheffy 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Dark Timber 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 8 King’s Ovation 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 4 Oncoming Train 10.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Vegas Guy 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Hard Asset 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mahomes Money 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Cool Quest 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Rising Empire 8.00 SCRATCH
15A 15 Beeboo 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Woodford S. Presented By Tvg

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Leinster 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Real News 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Fast Boat 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Extravagant Kid 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Chaos Theory 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Chaps 12.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Just Might 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Win Lion Win 30.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Citrus Burst 50.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Palace Avenger 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Sneaking Out 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Dos Vinos 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Inthemidstofbiz 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Lady’s Island 3.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 On Probation 20.00 5 9-1
4 4 Divine Queen 15.00 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – First Lady S. Presented By Uk Healthcare

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Beau Recall (IRE) 2.00 1.5 3-1
4 3 Newspaperofrecord (IRE) 1.60 1.6 3-1
5 4 Uni (GB) 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Dalika (GER) 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Crystal Lake 20.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Daddy Is a Legend 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Essential Quality 2.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Founder 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Calibrate 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Super Stock 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 King Fury 12.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Upstriker 8.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Dixie’s Two Stents 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Keepmeinmind 30.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Notary 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Shadwell Turf Mile S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Flavius 4.50 2.1 4-1
8 7 Analyze It 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 5 Raging Bull (FR) 6.00 3.4 7-1
9 8 Parlor 6.00 4 8-1
3 2 Without Parole (GB) 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Casa Creed 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 9 Ivar (BRZ) 12.00 6.6 13-1
4 3 Bowies Hero 15.00 7.6 14-1
5 4 Born Great 20.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Halladay 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Spectacular Gem 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sir Alfred James 4.50 2.5 5-1
11 11 Tough Love 6.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Straight Shot 5.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Edgemont Road 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Shashashakemeup 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Savvy 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Tank Commander 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Nifty 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Sagaponack 20.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Hide the Demon 30.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Madison’s Luna 30.00 7.5 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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