Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, October 3, 2020

October 3, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Girl of Tosconova 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Classy Sadie 6.00 3 6-1
9 6 Left Leaning Lucy 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Holmdel Park 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Stunning Munnings 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Thea’s Theme 10.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Maryanorginger 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 La Negrita 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Positive Skew 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 So Enchanting 2.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Bay Storm 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Lilly Simone 4.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 State Crown 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Oyster Box 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 6 Hollywood Gina 6.00 2.9 6-1
8 7 Mun Luv 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Cashmere Queen 30.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Salt Plage 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Tale of the Union 1.80 3 6-1
1 1 Golani Brigade 3.00 3 6-1
4 3 Foolish Ghost 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Harris Bay 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Thorny Tale 8.00 4 8-1
3 2 More Graytful 12.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Kosciuszko 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Charlie McCoy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Split Then Double (GB) 3.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Simply the Best 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Army Wife 1.20 2.4 5-1
3 3 My Tommy Lee 8.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Fort Drum 6.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Hurricane Florence 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Feeling Pretty 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Boss Cara 20.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Jordy Can Tap 30.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Gallant Bloom H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Honor Way 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 1 Royal Charlotte 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Frank’s Rockette 0.50 2.8 5-1
3 2 Bertranda 15.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Pacific Gale 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Bronx Beauty 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Pilgrim S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Public Sector (GB) 2.50 1.3 3-1
6 4 Fire At Will 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Shawdyshawdyshawdy 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 American Monarch 3.50 4.2 8-1
7 5 Step Dancer 8.00 4.5 9-1
8 6 Zippy Baby 10.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 It’s a Gamble 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Nathan Detroit 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Rockemperor (IRE) 2.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Master Piece (CHI) 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Channel Maker 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Sadler’s Joy 3.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 Cross Border 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Laccario (GER) 15.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Highland Sky 12.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Kelso H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Stan the Man 8.00 1.7 3-1
5 4 Code of Honor 1.00 1.7 3-1
3 2 Endorsed 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 3 Complexity 1.50 2 4-1
1 1 Mo Dont No 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Belmont Derby Invitational S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Pixelate 5.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Moon Over Miami 6.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 No Word 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 4 South Bend 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Venezuelan Hug 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Gufo 3.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Mo Ready 30.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 Ajourneytofreedom 20.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Domestic Spending (GB) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hedda 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 She’s a Majestic 4.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Black Licorice 4.00 2.1 4-1
12 12 Secrets Kept 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Show Me the Honey 12.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Mondeuse 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Khali Magic 12.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Theatrical Dancer 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Love’s Misery 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Sayoh 15.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Emma and I 20.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Rosies Surprise 30.00 9.3 18-1
13 13 Cinderella’s Cause 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kreesa La Wrote 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 The Promised Road 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Stella Mars 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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