October 3, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Girl of Tosconova | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classy Sadie | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Left Leaning Lucy | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holmdel Park | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stunning Munnings | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thea’s Theme | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maryanorginger | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | La Negrita | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Positive Skew | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | So Enchanting | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bay Storm | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lilly Simone | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | State Crown | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oyster Box | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hollywood Gina | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mun Luv | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cashmere Queen | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Salt Plage | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Tale of the Union | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golani Brigade | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Foolish Ghost | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Harris Bay | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Thorny Tale | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | More Graytful | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kosciuszko | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charlie McCoy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Split Then Double (GB) | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Simply the Best | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Army Wife | 1.20 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Tommy Lee | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fort Drum | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Florence | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Feeling Pretty | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Boss Cara | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jordy Can Tap | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Gallant Bloom H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Honor Way | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Royal Charlotte | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Frank’s Rockette | 0.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bertranda | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pacific Gale | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bronx Beauty | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Pilgrim S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Public Sector (GB) | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fire At Will | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shawdyshawdyshawdy | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | American Monarch | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Step Dancer | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Zippy Baby | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’s a Gamble | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Nathan Detroit | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rockemperor (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Master Piece (CHI) | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Channel Maker | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sadler’s Joy | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cross Border | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Laccario (GER) | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Highland Sky | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Kelso H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Stan the Man | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Code of Honor | 1.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Endorsed | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Complexity | 1.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Dont No | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Belmont Derby Invitational S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Pixelate | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Moon Over Miami | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Word | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | South Bend | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Venezuelan Hug | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gufo | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Ready | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ajourneytofreedom | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Domestic Spending (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hedda | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | She’s a Majestic | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Black Licorice | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Secrets Kept | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Show Me the Honey | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mondeuse | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Khali Magic | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Theatrical Dancer | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Love’s Misery | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sayoh | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Emma and I | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rosies Surprise | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cinderella’s Cause | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kreesa La Wrote | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | The Promised Road | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Stella Mars | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.