Sports from the Basement

Pimlico Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 2, 2020

October 2, 2020 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 7 Nevisian Sunset 3.00 3.8 7-1
9 6 Punk Rock Princess 3.00 4.5 9-1
2 1 Shake D Moon 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 2 Bird Tycoon 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 5 Broad Storm 12.00 7 13-1
4 3 Alin Azul 15.00 7 13-1
5 4 Simmard Shenanigan 20.00 8.6 16-1
14 8 Win Then Grin 20.00 8.7 16-1
1 1 Instinctive 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gennie Highway 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Pebble Road 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Our Flirtation 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 So Who’s Back 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Twirling Liz 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Final Prospect 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Smokin Hot Factor 8.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Belfour 0.60 2.5 5-1
6 6 Hayne’s Fever 12.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Bobby G 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Irishtown 30.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Dirtyfoot 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Phantom Ro 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Won the Case 10.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Odds On 10.00 4 7-1
7 5 Captain Mad Jack 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Mucho Prospect 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Artistic Drifter 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Ray’swarrior 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Aife 1.80 1.9 4-1
9 5 Wicked Awesome 1.60 2.1 4-1
3 2 Monkey Mind 10.00 4.7 9-1
6 4 Irony of Reality 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 3 Heaven Escape 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Jabuticaba 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Artful Splatter 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Blue Atlas 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lagom 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Fed Up Fired Up 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Mucha Mezquina 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 I’m Not Joking 2.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Firth 3.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 All Good Times 3.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Annika Gold 4.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Mia Bella Rossa 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Colloquium 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Yes I’m Evil 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Unmoored 1.60 1.7 3-1
2 2 Coop Tries Harder 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 5 Royal Commish 6.00 3 6-1
9 6 Charge to Victory 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Singanothersong 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 4 Degas 30.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 New York’s Finest 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Axtell 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fair Catch 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Railmaster 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Toughest ‘Ombre 2.00 1.3 2-1
6 5 Tattooed 3.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Tap the Mark 5.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Amen Corner 6.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Ballivor 15.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Awesome D J 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 6 Foggy Dreams 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 4 Delicious Pursuit 5.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Bath And Tennis (IRE) 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Too Much Tip 6.00 4.4 8-1
12 8 Why Now 8.00 5.5 10-1
11 7 Golden Can 15.00 8.1 15-1
3 2 Little Skiff 15.00 8.1 15-1
8 5 Splasherstown 20.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 La Piu Bella 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dance Or Stroll 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Limited View 1.80 SCRATCH
9 9 Unaquoi 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Hold Me Black 1.40 1.4 3-1
1A 7 Thundershook 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 1 Stroll Smokin 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 4 Seany P 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 6 Pat Daddy 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Zoomer 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Nova Boy 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 3 Lawn Boy (GB) 30.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Shane’s Jewel 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 3 Abiding Star 3.50 3.4 7-1
8 4 Patriot Drive 12.00 5.4 10-1
12 6 Nileator 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 5 Toe Curlin’ Kiss 20.00 7.3 14-1
13 7 Singapore Trader 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Fast Fire 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dundalk 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Temple 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Ten Eyck 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Hieroglyphics 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Glad Rock (GER) 15.00 SCRATCH
5 2 Posterity 30.00 10 19-1
2 1 Chargin Storm 30.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Pimlico Special S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Owendale 1.60 1.8 3-1
4 2 Someday Jones 4.50 2.6 5-1
5 3 Tenfold 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 7 Harpers First Ride 5.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Cordmaker 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 4 Clubman 20.00 6.7 13-1
7 5 Forewarned 20.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Monongahela 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Plus Que Parfait 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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