October 2, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Patriot’s War | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vasariano | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Juju | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eel Point | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Civil Servant | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hero of Love | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Rawan | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Farsighted | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Naughty Rendezvous | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Reminiscent | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Platinum Sky | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cardioversion | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Silk and Sugar | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yellow Dress | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mania | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Aunt Joie | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Sara Sea | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Risky Mandate | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Clear as Day | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cardamon | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Club Car | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Figure It Out | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Blame Debbie | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inveterate | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Urban Fairytale | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tempers Rising | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Channel Princess | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prairie Wings | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aurelia Garland | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Neversaynoletsgo | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Off We Go | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sun Path | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Quick | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Risky Reward | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zapporita | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Just Life | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Joy of Painting | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sentimental Cross | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Peachy Queen | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Solemn Oath | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Tete a Tete | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Torsie’s Charm | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Puye Timing | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Lilly | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dash to the Top | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spun d’Etat | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Grace | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crowella | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stephanies Jewel | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dream Quist | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Dignity | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Choate Bridge | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sursum Corda | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Luck Money | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Popper | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ella Brilla | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I Hear You | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | First Course | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Midnight Sands | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Parole | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lexitonian | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Diamond Oops | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mo Dont No | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Echo Town | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Absolutely Aiden | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Whitmore | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Empire of Gold | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shashashakemeup | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Copper Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Edgemont Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Darley Alcibiades S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Travel Column | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gramercy | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Simply Ravishing | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thoughtfully | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Crazy Beautiful | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Xtrema | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oliviaofthedesert | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Temple City Blvd | 0.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Master of the Ring | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bryce Canyon | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Conquest Rainycity | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Narmer | 3.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shaldag | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | City Drifter | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Storming Lion | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catipari | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sky Temple | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hoistthemainsail | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Prince | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Brutus | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Optimus Kat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Risk Manager | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lavish McTavish | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Rookie Year | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.