Sports from the Basement

Pimlico Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 1, 2020

October 1, 2020 Pimlico Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Barbsgray Lion 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Susikin 1.40 2.6 5-1
3 3 Greasedlightning 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Lady Rozina 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Marie From Parie 10.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Si Mamacita 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Call Me Jelly Roll 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Plamen 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Romp 4.50 3.4 6-1
9 5 Excursion 5.00 3.4 6-1
6 4 Market Cap 15.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 Let Us Make Gold 30.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Daisy’s Doc 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Jimmy P 0.80 SCRATCH
7 7 Elusive 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Take Profit 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Twixy Cat 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Robber Bob 3.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Girls Love Me 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Victory Given 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Mystic Times 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Cooke Brothers 10.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Southern Saviour 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Outside the Box 10.00 7 13-1
1A 5 Irishtown 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Hell of Afire 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 4 Beyond Forever 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Our Star 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 5 Cosita Rica 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 2 Reiltin Oir 20.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Play Charades 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Kailee (IRE) 1.60 SCRATCH
8 8 Dancingwithpaynter 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Tex Mee a Kiss 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Jumpstartmyheart 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Nymue’s Treasure 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 1 Dontletsweetfoolya 0.60 1.7 3-1
6 4 Gifted Heart 5.00 2.1 4-1
5 3 Deep Red 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 2 Always Something 30.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Money Fromheaven 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Le Weekend 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Jim Mckay Turf Sprint S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Tiger Blood 3.50 1.7 3-1
2 1 Texas Wedge 1.80 1.8 3-1
10 7 Francatelli 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 4 Completed Pass 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 3 Love You Much 15.00 3.3 6-1
9 6 Hollis 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 2 Tempt Me Twice 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Axtell 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Fair Catch 50.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Dr. Feelgood 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Camp Pendleton 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Natty Beau 3.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Nobody Knew 4.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Cantwaittobeking 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Manklin Creek 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Doublbarrelbourbon 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Strictly Business 15.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Pepe and Heywood 15.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Chico Con Alex 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – The Very One S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Jo Jo Air 3.00 2.5 5-1
10 8 Peaceful 5.00 3.1 6-1
7 5 Ode to Joy 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 A Great Time 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Wild About Star 12.00 6 11-1
11 9 Hear My Prayer 10.00 6.4 12-1
15 12 Foolish Humor 15.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Mr. Al’s Gal 15.00 7.7 15-1
12 10 Captain Sam 20.00 8.4 16-1
13 11 Not in Jeopardy 20.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Giggling 20.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Never Enough Time 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Tracy Ann’s Legacy 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chalon 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Philipine Cobra (GB) 15.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Dendrobia 30.00 11.9 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Chick Lang S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Yaupon 0.80 2.5 5-1
7 6 Dreams Untold 8.00 3.1 6-1
10 9 Arkaan 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Double Crown 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Captain Bombastic 12.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Lebda 15.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Relentless Dancer 15.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Little Menace 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 7 Pitching Ari 30.00 7.1 14-1
4 4 Blackberry Wine 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Pool Shark 2.00 1.1 2-1
6 4 Patriot Game 4.00 1.9 4-1
10 8 Good Luck Legacy 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 1 Maybe Someday 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 3 American Piper 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Yes Sir Colonel 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 5 Aliferous 20.00 5.9 11-1
9 7 Carson and I 30.00 8 15-1
1 1 My Boy Paddy 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Reliability 1.80 SCRATCH
11 11 Degas 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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