Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, October 1, 2020

October 1, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Royale 10.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Made My Day (IRE) 8.00 3.7 7-1
10 9 Forward Curve 1.60 3.9 7-1
5 5 Vicarage 3.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Accessible 6.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Inappropriate 15.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Tiz Envy 20.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Onthewingsoflou 30.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Uncle Ned 50.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Mohjestic 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Tri Saint Lorenzo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Cover Photo 1.60 2.3 4-1
4 3 Blunt Force 4.00 2.5 5-1
2 1 Forgotten Hero 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Tied Up 1.80 2.8 5-1
6 5 Whyisshesoolucky 30.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Queen Kahen 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Judge Alexander 6.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 South Africa 2.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Tackle 2.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Ernie Banker 4.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Pier Forty 8.00 3 6-1
4 4 Neuro 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Me ‘n Sap 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 True Palace 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 The J Y 4.50 2.5 5-1
9 6 Graded On a Curve 1.20 3 6-1
2 2 Rapt 3.00 3.4 6-1
11 7 Klickitat 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 5 Nutzforboltz 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Pipes 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Manifest Destiny 30.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Our Last Buck 2.50 SCRATCH
6A 6 Hit It Once More 10.00 SCRATCH
7A 7 Blugrascat’s Smile 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 I Love Jaxson 1.60 SCRATCH
12 12 Vintage Hollywood 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Skyler’s Scramjet 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 5 Shamrocked 5.00 2.4 4-1
7 6 Wegotoldyougotsold 1.80 2.5 5-1
1 1 Brush Country 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Releasethethunder 4.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Hawaiian Noises 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Vineyard Sound 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10B 9 Bayern’s Mirage 6.00 2.2 4-1
12B 11 Colloquist 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 8 No Nay Now (IRE) 4.50 2.9 6-1
5A 4 Market Impact 8.00 3 6-1
7 6 Grandmas Favorite 3.50 3 6-1
2 1 Complex System 1.40 3.1 6-1
6 5 Matty’s Marauder 15.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Ballydooley (GB) 20.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 Warfront Fighter 20.00 5.3 10-1
3 2 Camouflaged Kisser 30.00 6.7 13-1
11 10 Roma Carpe 50.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Kith 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Breithorn 2.50 SCRATCH
14A 14 Joint and Several 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Hurricane Hill 3.00 2.7 5-1
11 10 Bourbon Currency 3.00 3.1 6-1
10 9 Ahead of Plan 2.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Propensity 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Cobble Hill 8.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Mitzrayim 15.00 7.7 15-1
8 7 Dubai Bobby 15.00 8.9 17-1
9 8 Operative 15.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Coolboy 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Macho Jack 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tikhvin Flew 8.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 Sneakiness 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Saratoga Pal 4.00 SCRATCH
16A 16 Rejected Again 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Coach Villa 20.00 10.6 20-1
5 4 Knockout Punch 20.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Joseph A. Gimma S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Stimulus Check 3.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 No Mo’ Spending 2.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Irish Constitution 1.60 3 6-1
1 1 Infringement 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Chasing Cara 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Mashnee Girl 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Moonshine Maker 8.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Slugo 12.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Imperio D 3.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Competitive Cloud 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Never Hold Back 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Liquor 4.00 4.5 9-1
13 13 Permanentresident 20.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Stash My Money 5.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Black Irish 10.00 5 9-1
14 14 Victory Built 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Talespin 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Apex Predator 30.00 8 15-1
2 2 Gratto Swing 30.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Have a Heart 50.00 9.4 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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