Sports from the Basement

Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, September 27, 2020

September 27, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Twice a Lady 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Pure Bode 2.50 2.9 5-1
6 5 Gaelic Gold 1.60 3.2 6-1
4 3 I’m Fine 5.00 4 8-1
7 6 Cainudothetwist 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 4 Portofina 12.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Tabula Rasa 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Calidad 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Mini P (IRE) 1.80 2.1 4-1
8 7 Rakeez 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 4 Cowtown 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Shore Magic 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Mystery Bank 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 2 Alley Oop Johnny 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Kilronan 20.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Lost in Rome 1.20 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Beyond Discreet 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Stay Fond 0.80 2.8 5-1
2 2 Cotton Candy Cutie 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Cold Hearted Pearl 4.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Zecha 12.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Dirty Bird 12.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Autostrada 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Lightfoot Miss 3.00 2 4-1
7 7 Honey Pants 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Spa Ready 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Iaintfraidanoghost 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Berning Question 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Laoban Furen 10.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Five Alarm Robin 10.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Overheated 8.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Princess Fawzia 4.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Come Storming 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Kitten by the Sea 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Robin Sparkles 2.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Factoring 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Wedontbelieveher 30.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Big Bennys Tribute 30.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Lem Me Have It 1.80 SCRATCH
11 11 Jen’s Battle 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ceant 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 L’Indiscret 3.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Harlem Heights 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Sengekontacket 4.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Forty Zip 6.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Ms Boombastic 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Barista Vixen 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Safari Queen 10.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Look Me Over 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Malibu Anthem 15.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Simply Sweet 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Highly Motivated 1.40 1.9 4-1
8 8 Known Agenda 4.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Hipsky 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Time Leverage 5.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Cost Average 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Highway Bound 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 The Reds 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Run Smitty Run 20.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Sono Grato 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Uncle George 3.00 2.3 4-1
11 8 Freewheeler 2.50 3.8 7-1
9 6 Veterans Beach 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Three Outlaws 6.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 More Like It 5.00 4.4 8-1
3 2 Big Wonder 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 5 Constant Knight 20.00 7 13-1
5 4 Leap to Glory 20.00 7.3 14-1
10 7 Steelersfanforlife 15.00 8.1 15-1
2A 2 Wardenofthenorth 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Double Shot 6.00 SCRATCH
8A 8 Freudian Sip 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pop a Choc 1.40 2.6 5-1
1 1 Mrs. S 10.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Thankful 8.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mrs. Danvers 1.60 3.1 6-1
7 7 Critical Value 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Passive Investing 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Solitary Gem 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 More Mango 2.50 3.2 6-1
9 8 Lido Key 1.80 3.5 7-1
4 4 Flashing Red 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Positive Skew 12.00 4 8-1
12 11 Big Al’s Gal 12.00 5 9-1
11A 10 Marquet Legacy 10.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Stormy Derby Day 15.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Winifred J 20.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Sterling Beauty 20.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Minit Maus 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Wicked Amber 20.00 8.1 15-1
6 5 Wild North 30.00 9.5 18-1
13A 13 Beyond Brown 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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