September 26, 2020 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Heavy Roller | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shalako | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thebigfundamental | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Control Group | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flowers for Lisa | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Direct Order | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Eccoci Qua | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Golden Door | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Advanced Strategy | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Token | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jade’s Dream | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kaz’s Beach | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Vow of Beauty | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tercero | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Key to Victory | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Open Lengths | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tackle | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jouster | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | American West | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Suspended Campaign | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Leia Marie | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Millefeuille | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jamsstar | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sheshappy | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Simplicity (FR) | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tuned (GB) | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stone Tornado (GB) | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Niko’s Dream | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Traipsing | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pallas Athene | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Espresso Shot | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Masked Marauder | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chulainn | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Pivotal Run | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Breadman | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | I’m Blaming You | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wicked Easy | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arrowheart | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Hurtgen Forest | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mambonick | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Opus Curls | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tom’s Choice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Vodka Lemonade | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Flipping Fun | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hot Button | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Checksandbalances (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valletta | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Candy Flower | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Happy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | We Five | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Kitten’s Romance | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Won | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Giggle Factory | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cherokee Song | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mount Travers | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | T Loves a Fight | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tribecca | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Last Judgment | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pete’s Play Call | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Celtic Chaos | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Liam’s Pride | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Engine | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hidden Scroll | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Absentee | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Noble Damsel S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Viadera (GB) | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Feel Glorious (GB) | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Noor Sahara (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blowout (GB) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chaleur (GB) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Bye and Bye | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Atomic Blonde | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Zip | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Getmotherarose | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Another Broad | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Vosburgh S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Engage | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Funny Guy | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | True Timber | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Firenze Fire | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Share the Ride | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stan the Man | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Albie | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Allied Invasion | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Barleewon | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shootin the Breeze | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Diannesimpazible | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Beachside | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | River Knight | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mr. Vincent | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hypnotist | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fotis | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Paynter’s Prize | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Catorat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | McElmore Avenue | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Royal Suspect | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | My Amanjena | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 15A | 12 | Joy City | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.