September 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Laddie Boy | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Torazo | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Commission | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Reason to Soar | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nice Work | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strong Yen | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Claytnthelionheart | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Limonite | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Make Noise | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Doups Point | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Believeinholidays | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo’s Mojo | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giant Honor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rhythm Tree | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Curlita | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ronan | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Paddy Kaye’s Wild | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Not a Needy Gal | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | G City Warrior | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Willemina | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pintxos | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Painismygain | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Beachwalker | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Don’tshowweakness | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Marsac | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ahnaf | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Leading West | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Champers | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alexander Hamilton | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz Light the Way | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Big Biz | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Poppy’s Prize | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Tolkien | 20.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Traci’s Greeley | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | All Fact | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Isabelle’s Joy | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fed Policy | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tapigal | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Over the Blues | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Unwritten | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Turtle Trax | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Redeem My Heart | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | His Glory | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cash Out | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kuora (PER) | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Teenage Kicks | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Extra Effort | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Heart Sings | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cardamon | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Hansens Mischief | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Coltonator | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Satchel de Ritches | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Girolamo’s Attack | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Senor Jobim | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Man Flintstone | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mister K | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crypto | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic West | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Julius | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kadri | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Energizer | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Breaking News | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spycraft | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Uber Kirk | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Symphonic | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Popit | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Strike My Fancy | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Julia’s Ready | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frond | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Amazima | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Belle Laura | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Gal Betty | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Charette | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Quick Witted | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Entreat | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mess | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Motown Girl | 12.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Capture | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tizso Awesome | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Movie Moxy | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speighty Shirl | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Tune | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.