September 24, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ultimate Irony | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Two Worlds | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wayakin | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saving Mama | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Beaucette’s Ekati | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Payster | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spend Benjamins | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Smart Call | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Loan Shark | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blankenbaker | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | We’re Still Here | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fast Recovery | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seize the Day | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shacktothefinish | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Combating | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hex | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Count Your Pennies | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hard Ten | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Airstreem | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mau Mau | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I’m Just Fine | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Distorted Moon | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Abaan | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kennedy’s Beau | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Speightful Charge | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Light in the Dark | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Teller to Sing | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Madam Pie | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Thomasville | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Colonel Aby B | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Daddymademedoit | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | What’s the Move | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Areemaa | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Queen Louise | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Harms Way | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | A C Expressway | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Buffalo Shuffle | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alejandro | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Waypoint | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Last Samurai | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Swingman | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Language Barrier | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chief Ron | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shartle | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Approved | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Wild Weekend | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Drink | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Jack’s Advantage | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Glorious Weekend | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Money for Mischief | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Hidden Talent | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Midnight Patriot | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cornbread Kingdom | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | River Finn | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Subdued | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tiz McNamara | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Justin Zee | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Regal Beauty | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kiss More | 20.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Palio Flag | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gerri B | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Zanadu | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Majestic Blend | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brassy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 2 | Morocco | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On a Spree | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Tizzarunner | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Sugoi | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 4 | Power Player | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Intraday (BRZ) | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Kaziranga | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Sabador (FR) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Crypto Cash | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Zambian | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Rotation | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Race Craft | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scarlet Fusion | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Lake | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Swill | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Polished Chrome | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Runway Magic | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Man On the Moon | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bourbon Frontier | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Santa Cruiser | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wick | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.