Sports from the Basement

Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, September 18, 2020

September 18, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Nuclear Option 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Runforthemunnings 3.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Dugout 2.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Boa Nova (IRE) 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Hide the Demon 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Royal Commish 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Dazzling Truths 8.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Never Have I Ever (IRE) 1.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 North Elkhorn 10.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Easter Music 8.00 4 8-1
8 8 Long Station 15.00 4 8-1
1 1 You’re Killin Me 5.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Gorgeous George 8.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Welovecandy 4.50 4.5 8-1
3 3 Dancin Nicky 30.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Riv 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 I’m Corfu 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Shakes Creek 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Impressed 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 President Elect 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Tough Stuff 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Can’t Hide From Me 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 One Way Home 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Mexico Memories 15.00 6.5 12-1
11 9 Takafumi (BRZ) 20.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Munn Passage 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Keep Attacking 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 High On Sugar 3.50 2.4 4-1
9 8 River Evangelist 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Gold Hawk 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Giacallure 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 McHenry 4.50 3.9 7-1
8 7 The Sheik of Araby 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Croce d’Oro 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Kaliningrad 30.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Wild About You 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Tan 6.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Milburn 3.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Last Spring 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Tornado Boy 4.50 4 7-1
3 3 Enhanced Edition 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Love That Warrior 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Coup de Ville 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Crankshaft 15.00 5.6 10-1
10 9 Dark Wood (IRE) 30.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Clear to Close 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Ugo 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Moonshine Dreamer 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Burning Ambition 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Javanica 5.00 2.6 5-1
12 9 Mary of Bethany 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Blameitonthemusic 10.00 3.5 7-1
8 7 Let’s Skedaddle 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Royal Mission 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Jolina 15.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Ride Like a Girl 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Mizzen Ash 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Business Lady 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Orsetto 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Miracle Mountain 4.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Behind Enemy Lines 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Call the Colonel 6.00 4 8-1
9 8 Standfortheanthem 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Christian C 3.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Toccetive Jac 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Saturdays Hangover 15.00 5.2 10-1
12 10 Timingiseverything 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Charlie Irish 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 7 Forgot to Forget 20.00 7 13-1
4 4 Pistol Box 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fort Dixie 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Davka 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Joey B 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pharaoh’s Kitten 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Agave Kid 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Huey Attack 3.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Classofsixtyseven 4.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Off to the Beach 8.00 4.6 9-1
13 12 Fast One 8.00 4.7 9-1
12 11 Foggy Albion 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 High Spirits 15.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Thai One On 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Skeeterskeets 15.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Captain Carnegie 30.00 9 17-1
10 10 Midnight Lewis 30.00 9.9 19-1
11 11 Silver Hit 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bee Happy Attack 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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