September 12, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Storminside | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mutakddim Road | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Drama Star | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Elusive Force | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Roski | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ripe Attack | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kyzan | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cosmic Hallelujah | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Treasure Trove | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arrival | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Memory Bank | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | P H Factor | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | What’s Up Dude | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bulldog of Bergen | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Acosta | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Spirit | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mary’s a Jem | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dulcimer Dame | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Promises Kept | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Touch by Felicty | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Laura Attack | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ashleysdream | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Polly War Cry | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Locash | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Southern Attack | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Joysome | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Luna Fortis | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Templuna | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Rebellion | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Point Streak | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Meeka | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chrome Attack | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Eye On the Finish | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Susan Ann | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ima Little Kitten | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Sequins Storm | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Come On Dover | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Syrup | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | W W Russian Gold | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Enzoexpress | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whacudposblygowrng | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Haunted Mesa | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Z U Soon | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tio Chuy | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Trappe Valley | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Notacatbutacard | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Follow the Signs | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fascilitator | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Splash for Gold | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exprompt (FR) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Our Thomas | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Durango Kid | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Hide From Me | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Fifthatnarraganset | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Roving Kind | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Foggy Flight | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Summer Express | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Turn Tammy | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stopshoppingamy | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | New Rules | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Simply Fast | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lipliner | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Blues | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Offlee Fun | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Power Cry | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stump | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Virga | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Romeo O Romeo | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Uncle Nearis | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buddy Bud | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Peteizum | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dom the Bomb | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.