September 5, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Home Base | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Resolution | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Trumpets | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Sands | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hog Creek Hustle | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thrill Ride | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Idol | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Proud Veteran | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Full Authority | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kadri | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kennedy’s Beau | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Quality Warrior | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Storm King | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fastly | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Marsac | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pit Boss | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dynacharge | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One Nation | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Abaan | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Too Hot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Speightstown Again | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Copley | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Essential Quality | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Lake | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Rye Sense of Humor | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Xietelehuas | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Devil’s Tower | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Copa | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Santa Cruiser | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lock Up | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | T Money | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | King’s Mischief | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Me We | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cool Quest | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | On a Spree | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Attorney Tim | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Ro | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spanish Kingdom | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cavalry Charge | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stage Ready | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Job Security | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lastchanceatglory | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Parkland | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trident Hit | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Handy | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Groom Lake | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ransack | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Admire | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Cowboy Diplomacy | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Alex Joon | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wayne O | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stilts | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hersh | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Street Class | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Alfred James | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Popit | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coastal Defense | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cool Bobby | 4.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Verb | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Peruvian Boy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Aurelius Maximus | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Signalman | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Savvy | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Award Winner | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Casino Star | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Locally Owned | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chess Chief | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bodexpress | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Quality | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | All West | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tank Commander | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sagaponack | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Smithfield
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Field Pass | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fancy Liquor | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sugoi | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taishan | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Smooth Like Strait | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | King Theo | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Butterfly | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sunsation | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg And E And Ku
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Echo Town | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Digital | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sonneman | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Vertical Threat | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tap It to Win | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Rushie | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shashashakemeup | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cezanne | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | No Parole | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Pico d’Oro | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Stock | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Midnight Bourbon | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drop Anchor | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Belafonte | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Crazy Shot | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Therideofalifetime | 1.40 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Notary | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ultimate Badger | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sittin On Go | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dreamer’s Disease | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Newspaperofrecord (IRE) | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Beau Recall (IRE) | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Daddy Is a Legend | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | La Signare (FR) | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Belle Laura | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’sonthewarpath | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Harmless | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Derby City Gaming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Serengeti Empress | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wildwood’s Beauty | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Shesomajestic | 30.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bellafina | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Ce Ce | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bell’s the One | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sally’s Curlin | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mia Mischief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lady Kate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rockemperor (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Factor This | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sacred Life (FR) | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Digital Age (IRE) | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Somelikeithotbrown | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Spectacular Gem | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Dumas | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bowies Hero | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dontblamerocket | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | True Valour (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Ny Traffic | 20.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Honor A. P. | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Thousand Words | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Max Player | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Authentic | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr. Big News | 50.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Money Moves | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Major Fed | 50.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Necker Island | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Tiz the Law | 0.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enforceable | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Storm the Court | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Winning Impression | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sole Volante | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | King Guillermo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Finnick the Fierce | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | South Bend | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Attachment Rate | 50.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.