September 4, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Financial One | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Whispering Pines | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chewy Chewy Good | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Sovereign Appeal | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Power of Magic | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | April in Paris | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Norma Jean B. | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Glamour Girl | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Saintsation | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Movie Moxy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rock Star Parking | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ship It | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sianara | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quick Munny | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Salty as Can Be | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Amusing Antics | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Distorted Verve | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Farsighted | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Bird | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Traveler | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aunt Joie | 15.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Super Sport | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jeweled Princess | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Positive Spirit | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Regard | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Shacklette | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sara Sea | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Trauma | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Resurrection Road | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Palomita | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Misty Blue | 12.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She Can’t Sing | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Goulding | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss T Too | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ocean Breeze | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tipsy Gal | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Irish Willow | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stolen Beauty | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Off We Go | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Travel Column | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good With Numbers | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Lea | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Malibu | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honorifique | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Front Street | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Runaway Rockette | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Three Tipsy Chix | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amiche | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dramatizer | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mejthaam | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Peace Broker | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Honest Mischief | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Strike That | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Lasting Legacy | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Nitrous | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Mucho | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Manny Wah | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mojo Man | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Hog Creek Hustle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Ella Brilla | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Good Times | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sicilia (GB) | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Fairytale | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I Hear You | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Flabbergasted | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | First Course | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Singita Dreams | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Audrey’s Time | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sense You Left | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Gold Included | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shelley’s Gem | 50.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady Oxbow | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mundaye Call | 1.20 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Four Graces | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Never Forget | 20.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sconsin | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Extra Effort | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Purrfectly Claire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Happiness | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Pranked | 8.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | In Good Spirits | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Betty | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hendy Woods | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sharing | 1.20 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mariafoot (FR) | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Walk In Marrakesh (IRE) | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outburst (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | By My Standards | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | McKinzie | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Owendale | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Dust | 15.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Title Ready | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr Freeze | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hence | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bodexpress | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – La Troienne S. Presented By Oak Grove Racing And Gaming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | She’s a Julie | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Monomoy Girl | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Kate | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Risky Mandate | 20.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Horologist | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | With Dignity | 30.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saracosa | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vexatious | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Longines Kentucky Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gamine | 1.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Donna Veloce | 15.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Swiss Skydiver | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shedaresthedevil | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speech | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dream Marie | 50.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hopeful Growth | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tempers Rising | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bayerness | 50.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Stakes) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sysco
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Carotari | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wellabled | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Chaps | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Chief Cicatriz | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Real News | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Smart Remark | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tell Your Daddy | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Oops | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jazzy Times | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Just Might | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Extravagant Kid | 3.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bound for Nowhere | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tiger Blood | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | High Crime | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Fielder | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.