September 3, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Strong Will | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sky Mischief | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nuclear Option | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Dabo | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Lykan | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bulldog of Bergen | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dugout | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Our Thomas | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ed’s Rocket | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gorgeous George | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Long Station | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Riv | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lee’s Luck | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unscathed | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Impeachableoffense | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jack Van Berg | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Buttered Noodles | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clear to Close | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Munn Passage | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Canihaveitlikethat | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rough Justice | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tre Lee Divine | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Virga | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Valid Storm | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Curby | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bear Trappe | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jeggyjeggy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Workingforaliving | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seba’s Dancer | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Nearis | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Executive Time | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Millie | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twelve Red Roses | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cocoa Peach | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Vice Grip | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Luck | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Supreme Irene | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Sydney’s Treasure | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Risky Risky Risky | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Me too Mo | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Melissani | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Calypso Key | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shes Got Me Going | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Victory Rose | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Regal Romance | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moonshine Dreamer | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gramercy | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mpemba | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dorota | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ruby Round Here | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Baytown Emmalee | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Unique Girl | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Time | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lady Madison (IRE) | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Romantic Attack | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Glory Ride | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Have the Facts | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Trophy Bridle | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temptation Eyes | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Laverns Lass | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hero Alexandra | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pierette | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Be Authentic | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Baytown Babe | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hook Her Up | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bella Linda | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | High Vision | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Broadway Duchess | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Molitta | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | I Don’t Want to Go | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Logi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.