September 2, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Laddie Boy | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Victory Element | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reason to Soar | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stay Home | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Yen | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Most Mischief | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Park Ridge Benny | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady McKenzie | 12.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ready Orb Not | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honey Parade | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shackleford County | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Frills | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Freedom Passage | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Irish Spirit | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cantrell Hill | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | K W Captain Flint | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Money for Mischief | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dreams of Yvonne | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Briar Jumper | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Released | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flashy Biz | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Marlee | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Designing | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flower House | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beauty Day | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lemon Chill | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Caroline Lois | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Channel Princess | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Royal Commission | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Albert’s Barn | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Allgrit | 15.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Beyond Gone | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gangly | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Out Cold | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Uncle Gregory | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Johny’s Bobby | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Deano | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | White Wolf | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mason A. P. | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Big Island | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Laker Mamba | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Keepmeinmind | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Johny’s Fireball | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Loumo | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arabian Prince | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bryce Canyon | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dewy’s Hit | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Optimus Kat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Conquest Rainycity | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Lavish McTavish | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sir Roberto | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Incitatus | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Light Us Up | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mystical Man | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Buckets of Rain | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | A Thousand Reasons | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ain’t No Elmers | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Perfect Happiness | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Lady of Luxury | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz Ella | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Club Car | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Diamond Crazy | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Delivery | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | My Sixth Sense | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Nifty | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Dragon | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Borracho | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Royal Mesa | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Troubling Moon | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Thirstforlife | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Two Thirty Five | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ebben | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Easy Shot | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Looking At Bikinis | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Resolution | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Unbridled Sidney S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | Break Even | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Ambassador Luna | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Tomlin | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Change of Control | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Stonewood | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crystal Lake | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bulletproof One | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Jakarta | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dixieincandyland | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Violent Times | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Jo Jo Air | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Sag Harbor | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fast Cash | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Can Imagine | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Maga Country | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Colonel’s Map | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | We’re Still Here | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Company Clown | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prioritizer | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ultimate Fighter | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Belfast Boy | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winging Ways | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | American Humor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.