September 1, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Just Fly | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | War Ballad | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Proudly Fought | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | All Fact | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She Wants More | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Allege | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Juju | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Awakened | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leading West | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Decision Maker | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jack Luvs Nova | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mulberry Street | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Two Worlds | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Frosted Prayer | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Okudah | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cowardly Act | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smooth Music | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southern Will | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ultimate Irony | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Authoritarian | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Champions Day Marathon Overnight S. Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Sir Winston | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ry’s the Guy | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Core Beliefs | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rated R Superstar | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eskenforit | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Easy Shot | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Aunt Pearl (IRE) | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ice Queen | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ms Satch Mo | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Eau de Vie | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Faith and Honor | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gam’s Mission | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mary of Bethany | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cuzzywuzzy | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gathered Flowers | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Temper Time | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | High Fashion | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | El Asesino | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Malpais | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sharp Art | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Knight Disruptor | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snaggletooth | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Barry Lee | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Feeling It | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Harvey Wallbanger | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honoring Major | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Street to Indy | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Prompt | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Charlie’sarchangel | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Knight’s Cross | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Peck | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hardly a Secret | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Arrival | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Gigging | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Tizzarunner | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Beautiful Wall | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hay Dakota | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Silver N Lai | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kaziranga | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | High Promise | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Golden Dragon | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morning Social | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freedom’s Flight | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Casino Star | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Rotation | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Subliminalcriminal | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drink | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Digital Star | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Satchel de Ritches | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Critic | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dontneedaname | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Willfred | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mads | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fire Marshall Bill | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Raphael | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Money for Mischief | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Bourbon Trail | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.