August 21, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Silver Token | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fast Gordon | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Advanced Strategy | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Striking Causeway | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Destiny | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Golden Door | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Calibogee | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Obsessed | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ashiham | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Angry Man | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Asset | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tenderfoot | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Make Motime | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Skidmore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Golden Pal | 0.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fauci | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sky’s Not Falling | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny Isle Beach | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Baytown Bear | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Knight | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Eagle Orb | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Citizen K | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seven Seven | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sonic Speed | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | It’s Gravy | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cape Cod Gem | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crock of Gold | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | What’s My Category | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | More Like It | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Standup | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Unprecedented | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Propensity | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | My Man Flintstone | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dubai Bobby | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oh My Papa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tikhvin Flew | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Knockout Punch | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Duopoly | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Princesa Caroline | 1.20 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eye of a Soldier | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Passion Factor | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lashara (GB) | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mirabell Mei | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Taranta (IRE) | 15.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Make Or Break | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | New Day Dawning | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Jump for Joy | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’ll Take the Cake | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cathy Naz | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Solitary Gem | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dovey Lovey | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lady by Choice | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Crack Shot | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Veterans Beach | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Freewheeler | 1.20 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Noble Emotion | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Adios Amigos | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Beachside | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ventus | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inside Info | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bears Mafia | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Gaelic Gold | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kept Waiting | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Kilkea | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Micromillion | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Excited Feeling | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kaz’s Princess | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Plink Freud | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dancing Slippers | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Voice of Spring | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.