August 19, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Michael G. Walsh Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Snap Decision | 1.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Galway Kid (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Duc de Meran (FR) | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fast Car | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Family Tree (GB) | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Belisarius (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zanzi Win (FR) | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | City Dreamer (IRE) | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Go Get the Basil | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ruby Stiletto | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Siesta Kew | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sassy Belle | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gray Lollipops | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stimulus Check | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Ingrassia | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Reina Del Sol | 1.40 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stunning Princess | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Normal | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Puma Punku | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tinder Date | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Funwhileitlasted | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Curlin Grey | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majid | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hoffenheim | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Street Trust | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eden Ridge | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Scarf It Down | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Financial System | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go Poke the Bear | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | McErin | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Another | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Zero Gravity | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Abiding Star | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Willing to Speed | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Decision | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mick’s Star | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rivendell | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | In Front | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Balon Rose | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kitten by the Sea | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bareeqa | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Joyous Times | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Pure Wow | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kelleycanrun | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Solitary Gem | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bossy Bride | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Golani Brigade | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blackjack Davey | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Thicket | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Quickflash | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beach Access | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kerry Boy | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Forever Wicked | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coach Villa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tobys Heart | 1.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Joy’s Rocket | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mischievous Dream | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Amanzi Yimpilo (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sassy Hannah | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Souper Sweet | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quinoa Tifah | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hara | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sunny Isle Beach | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Stylish Rags | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Brovia | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Women Not Easy | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Al’s Gal | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sandra’s Mine | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Little Red Button | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eighty Seven North | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tornado Crossing | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Go Zappem | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Devils Rendezvous | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Renninas Rose | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gen Z | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Memories Eternal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Plink Freud | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hey It’s Tati | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mizzen the Mark | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Sweet Breeze | 50.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.