August 14, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | On Probation | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | O’Keeffe | 1.80 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Sugarsugarsugar | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | W W Fitzy | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Isabellacannetella | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Archiemyboy | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Richiesgotswagger | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bulldog of Bergen | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Gita’s Lad | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | President Elect | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flashy Brew | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Lapis Storm | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stormy Empire | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dusty Miller | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Field Letters | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Almafuerte | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | B N a Native Girl | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hollee Peach | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | American Biz | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rachelgotstephen | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Case Cracker | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Para Vivir | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Peppermint Ice | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Hoosier | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Constancia | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Marco’s Dream | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Farmer Joe | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heisfancy | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bold Attack | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Last Spring | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tres Generaciones | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hammers Thirsty | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Colorofacloud | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fall Moon | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unburnt | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forevernoa | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bird Key | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Henrys Girl | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Holycow Shes Fancy | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Kyzan | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jive Daddy | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Ferlin Husky | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Romeo O Romeo | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greeleys Ice | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Four Left Feet | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Drama Star | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | At Guard | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Grey Mask | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tre Lee Divine | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Talking Zip | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seba’s Dancer | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr D’s Way | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Willow Ridge | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hide the Evidence | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Landing Gear | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beast Mode | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | R H Smoakem | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.