August 9, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | We Should Talk | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Malpais | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Deep Sea | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vineyard Sound | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stoney Bennett | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flowers for Lisa | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hardcore Folklore | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tale of Mist | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Seasons | 1.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Misspell | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frankel At Ascot (FR) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fluffy Socks | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Classic Colors | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Modest | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ice Queen | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Say Moi | 1.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smooth With a Kick | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wild Love | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Makingcents | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Critical Value | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fouette | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Commando | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Steal My Sunshine | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rookery | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lightfoot Miss | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Union Gables | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Joqular | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bastet | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | L’Indiscret | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Windfall Profit | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ms Boombastic | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Rosalie (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Johnnie Merle (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Venus Oyzo | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Simply Sweet | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Thankful | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Pop a Choc | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Palio Flag | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Henrys Deal | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Escape Fund | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Primacy | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Secondary Market | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Timely Tradition | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Glass Ceiling | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Addilyn | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grey Jazmine | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mo Me Mo My | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Aunt Nadine | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Summer Fortune | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Temperance | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stretchthestory | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ginger Kitty | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shannon’s Girl | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Abby Normal | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vevey | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bull Feathers | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Mr Jaggers | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forever Poe | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | City Man | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shamrocket | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Country | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Will Sing for Wine | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Venezuelan Hug | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | African Heritage | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Buy Me Candy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Alydar S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bodexpress | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Endorsed | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spinoff | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Its All Relevant | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Backsideofthemoon | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tenfold | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Brunate | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Always Funny | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Imperio D | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pier Forty | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bank Gala | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Boston Billy | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Constant Quest | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Have a Heart | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Never Hold Back | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lorenzen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.